Nepal has been roiled by political instability since the devastating earthquake two years ago. The political temblors have reinforced the destabilisation caused by the natural. Indeed, the Himalayan country has known two Prime Ministers since 2015. Wednesday’s withdrawal of Madhesi support, specifically of the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM), may not affect the Prachanda government as it has 320 members in the 601-member Constituent Assembly. The government led by the CPN-Maoist Centre is backed by the Nepali Congress, Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, and certain fringe entities. This can scarcely inspire confidence in Kathmandu, however. The degree of forward movement consequent upon last year’s decision of the Madhesis to join the Prachanda coalition has been dissipated in a little over six months. As a restive ethnic group on the border with India, the Madhesis have conveyed a robust message ~ the incumbent dispensation, much like the previous Oli government, has failed to meet the ultimatum to fulfill their festering demands, chiefly a reorganisation of the provinces and a liberal citizenship policy. The latest ultimatum expired on Tuesday, and the coalition has ceased to be a cohesive entity with the withdrawal of support. The Morcha has severed its seven-month-old ties, implicitly accusing the government of backtracking on assurances, indeed to take care of ethnic sensitivities. It bears recall that the constituents of the Madhesi-led Morcha had voted for Prachanda in the prime ministerial election on August 3 last year on the basis of the pledge that the government would concede their demand for an amendment to the Constitution. The Madhesi decision to withdraw support to the government came hours after Prachanda made a desperate last-ditch attempt to convince them to participate in the impending local polls. Once again he has promised to amend the Constitution but without addressing the core issue ~ reorganisation of the provincial boundaries. It was, therefore, unrealistic to expect the eleventh-hour feelers to mollify the ethnics. The other concerns that the Madhesis have raised are that the government had infringed upon the jurisdiction of provincial governments, which are yet to be formed, by declaring local-level elections. The government’s indifference runs counter to the terms of the three-point agreement reached last August, notably the pledge that the Prachanda government would amend the Constitution.
Regretfully, successive governments in Kathmandu have been impervious to the festering demands, resulting in a six-month economic blockade last year of the India-Nepal border by the Madhesis. With fuel and medicine supplies having been disrupted, India has unwittingly been drawn into the vortex of the dispute. Politically, Nepal may not be in crisis quite yet; but Prachanda will hopefully take a call on the contentious issues that are no less important than the local elections ~ apparently the Prime Minister’s immediate obsession. The credibility of the government is at stake.