The exit poll projections in India are, after all, not so incredible as to render the electorate flabbergasted.
Australia almost definitely is bamboozled thanks to the almost incredible psephological swing. The pattern of voting has defied the certitudes of pshephology.
Almost simultaneously Down Under, the country’s conservative coalition, helmed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party, claims to have recorded what he calls a political “miracle”. In tangible terms, he does owe his victory to a miracle more than any other factor that can pay dividend at the hustings.
And he has been honest enough in his prognosis. The country’s conservative coalition is poised to form a majority government ~ the paradox of a shock election victory. Projections by opinion polls and bookmakers have gone haywire. Both had tipped the opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) to win, but the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has let it be known that Mr Morrison’s coalition had won 76 seats in the 151-seat Parliament.
On the face of it, this is a wafer-thin majority; yet the performance of the Liberal Party has been as astounding as it is spectacular. That performance must seem still more spectacular not the least because the fragile coalition had contested the election as a minority government.
The victory, therefore, ought to enable the ruling conglomerate to consolidate its defences. Mr Morrison’s coalition will be in a position to appoint the house Speaker from its own ranks, rather than from among Independent or minor party politicians. Profound are the political and economic implications in the Asia-Pacific region. Last Monday, Australian banking, property and health-related stocks had zoomed ahead to an 11- year high.
Mr Morrison has been remarkably gracious in the moment of triumph ~ “The people,” he said, “have had their say, they’ve made their decision. Now they expect us to get on with it so they can get on with their lives. That’s what the quiet Australians have said and I’m going to honour that.”
The victory has been fortituous, one that affords no scope for starry-eyed euphoria. Mr Morrison’s principal goalpost will be to address the menace of environmental pollution and he may need to effect a paradigm shift. He has rejected efforts to increase the use of renewables to generate electricity, arguing it would damage the economy, which relies on coal-fired power and mining exports.
The coalition has stuck to an official target to cut carbon emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030, down from the 2005 levels. But Australia’s record doesn’t readily inspire optimism. Misgivings that it is unlikely to meet the objective are not wholly unfounded.
At another remove, Labor had campaigned on more aggressive targets, resolving to cut carbon emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 and reach 50 per cent renewable power. Mr Morrison and his team will have to trim its sails to the demands of the Earth.