When PM Modi visited Moscow in early July, the dates coincided with the NATO summit in Washington. There were calls from the US requesting India to defer the visit, which were ignored. The US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, commented that India should not take relations with the US for granted. Jake Sullivan, the American NSA mentioned, “betting on Russia as a long-term, reliable partner is not a good bet.” Soon thereafter there was a delay in supplies of GE F404 engines, impacting India’s Tejas aircraft production. This delay prompted the Vice Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal A P Singh, to comment ‘atmanirbharta cannot be at the cost of nation’s defence.’
The delay of GE engines has been attributed to supply chain issues, but then with the US anything can be expected. It has a reputation for twisting arms of even allies when it seeks to push its weight. The visit to Poland and Kiev by the Prime Minister last week was possibly aimed at offsetting the perception of India being in the Russian camp. In April this year, India became the largest procurer of Russian oil, surpassing China. The timing of Mr Modi’s visit was also symbolic.
Ukraine celebrates its Independence Day on 24 August and the PM visited on 23 August, conveying India backs Ukrainian sovereignty. The basic reason for the visit was conveyed by Mr Modi when he tweeted, “We will also share perspectives on the peaceful resolution of the ongoing Ukraine conflict.” It was expected that Mr Modi would not comment negatively on Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit but offer humanitarian aid and enhance trade ties, while Volodymyr Zelenskky, the Ukrainian President would do so. It was possibly with the intent of conveying neutrality that Mr. Modi mentioned while addressing the Indian diaspora in Warsaw that India is shifting from maintaining equal distance (non-alignment) to building close relations with all camps (strategic autonomy).
The joint statement issued at the end of the Warsaw visit mentioned both nations “reiterated the need for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in line with international law, consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, including respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.” These words will augur well with the West. The visit to Poland was symbolic though gaining a stronger foothold in Eastern Europe was also essential as it remains the only safe entry into Ukraine via a ten-hour train journey. Poland stood with India when it withdrew its students from Ukraine at the commencement of the conflict and it was essential to convey gratitude to the leadership of Poland. The visit of Rajnath Singh, the defence minister, to Washington coinciding with the visit of the PM to Kyiv cannot be just another coincidence.
Rajnath Singh stated prior to his visit, “Will discuss areas of strategic interests, while seeking to strengthen defence cooperation.” Multiple agreements on defence were inked in this visit including one to offset supply chain disruptions. In all probability stumbling blocks in release of the engines have been overcome as also there would be progress on other defence deals. While the US and its allies continue to fund Ukraine, there is a realization that this cannot continue for long. Germany has already proposed cutting funding by 50 per cent from next year. Hungary has objections to current levels, as do others. The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House could reduce US support substantially, placing Ukraine in a spot.
The offensive in Russia’s Kursk by Ukraine adds to its bargaining power in terms of territory and has come at a crucial juncture, impacting the chances of any immediate ceasefire. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, mentioned just prior to Mr Modi’s visit, “There will be no negotiations until the enemy is completely and utterly destroyed.” China has already begun displaying its desire of being the mediator between Ukraine and Russia. PM Modi’s visit to Kyiv coincided with the visit of the Chinese PM, Li Qiang, to Moscow. Beijing had recently invited the Ukrainian foreign minister to China. Dismayed by Mr Modi’s visit, aware that India has more global clout if it decides to mediate, China termed the Indian initiative as ‘yoga diplomacy.’
The Chinese mouthpiece, Global Times mentioned, “New Delhi lacks the strength and influence to bridge gaps between Moscow and Kyiv at this moment, as its influence is very limited in Europe.” For the US, mediation by Beijing is unacceptable. Possibly PM Modi carried a message of negotiation, shared in his one-to-one meeting with Zelensky. He would have discussed Moscow’s perceptions with Putin. Mr Modi’s statement in Warsaw that ‘India is a strong advocate for lasting peace in this region. India’s stance is clear: this is not the era of war,’ is also not just a coincidence. There were differences in opinion between Ukraine and India, especially on procuring oil from Russia and not endorsing the peace summit document, but this was likely projecting the US view.
India is unlikely to offer mediation on its own, unless requested to do so by both sides, chances of which are currently slim. Even if it was discussed, it would remain under wraps until something substantial emerges. New Delhi would have preferred to sit out the conflict as it has been doing in West Asia. India has never accepted mediation in its disputes and hence may not offer the same on its own. It is a balancing act which PM Modi has adopted to ensure that India’s relations remain stable with all camps. Though Mr Modi disappointed both Ukraine and the West as he had not criticized Putin till date, he remains the only leader to have visited Moscow and Kyiv.
While what would flow in the media would be the official version, the fact remains that a visit of this nature, especially to a war zone, cannot be without detailed preparation. The quantum of homework which would have preceded the visit, including conversations between foreign ministers and NSAs, would have sought some tangible results. The fact that there were no air raid sirens in Kyiv throughout the time Mr Modi was in the city indicates that Russia was unwilling to interrupt the visit as it could be beneficial to them in the long-term. It also signifies the relationship which exists between Delhi and Moscow. (The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)