The country is in the throes of an unprecedented pandemic. Cyclones are battering the country. But our leaders are still fighting yesterday’s elections as well as elections oh so far away. The BJP must reconcile itself gracefully to its defeat in the recent West Bengal elections. They threw everything including the kitchen sink at Mamata Banerjee, but she prevailed, fair and square. By raising the stakes of the election so high, almost making it a general election and then losing so dramatically, the BJP has made Banerjee the foremost challenger to the PM’s seat.
There is no leader other than Banerjee in sight who can galvanize the opposition to take on Modi in 2024. Even senior Congress politicians like Kamal Nath have stated, in a pointed snub to Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, that Banerjee is the leader of the country. Most of the opposition will have to perforce unite behind Banerjee. Yet, India needs a calm leader, and not a mercurial one. If one week is a long time in politics, then three years is an eternity. There is no doubt that the BJP is needling Banerjee. But must she resort to histrionics? One day it is a tiff over a Zoom call with the PM to discuss the Covid crisis, the other it is a clash over a meeting to address the cyclone.
Banerjee must realize that the BJP has got used to power and will do everything in its power to destroy anyone who seeks to grab that power from them. The PM is in an especially vulnerable position right now given the state of the pandemic in India. The PM knows that scams beset the UPA2 government two to three years before it finally disintegrated. The pandemic has thrown a spanner in the wheels of all the BJP plans for 2024. And in order to destroy a Frankenstein like Banerjee, they have instead created a bigger Frankenstein in her. But must she behave like Frankenstein?
Arvind Kejriwal, believe it or not, the chief minister of a city-state (unlike Banerjee who is the CM of a full state), too retains ambitions of becoming the PM. He used to clash with the Centre repeatedly, but now those roars have become just squeals. He doesn’t have the mandate to lead the opposition that Banerjee has now, yet his measured behaviour might elevate him to the challenger’s slot over Banerjee. Banerjee must calm down and focus on governance. She must have done a good job in her last term that she won so resoundingly now.
She must continue doing her good work and not make unnecessary news. She has beaten the BJP once. To beat it again, she must plan and plot carefully. By provoking her into hissy fits, the BJP is trying to upend her victory and show the people of India that she is unfit for the highest executive office in the land. She is well known to the people of West Bengal. She is not that well known to the people of India. Bengal has given a long line of stellar leaders to the country – Bose, Tagore, Basu, Mukherjee. Bose, Basu and Mukherjee all almost made it to the top job in the country, but fortune didn’t favor them.
They were all measured leaders though. Banerjee must follow in their vein. She must appear calm and collected to the people of India, who will not hand over the keys of the Ferrari to someone who might crash it. No matter his supposed recent shortcomings, the PM still has kept the Ferrari safe and sound. Any challenger to his throne must give a similar impression, that no matter the crisis, the Ferrari that is India will be kept safe. Banerjee has not only the BJP to take on in 2024.
Numerous opposition leaders will try to scuttle her bid to become the undisputed prime ministerial challenger. Certainly there must be misgivings in the Congress over her rise. The last time she tried to become the leader of the opposition, in 2019, Rahul Gandhi refused to endorse her. It remains to be seen whether he will endorse her now. Even if she becomes the prime ministerial challenger for 2024, many opposition stalwarts might want her to lose in 2024 and the BJP to win then.
Modi will be 73 in 2024. If he wins then, he will be 78 in 2029. Perhaps he will hand over the reins to someone else in what would be his third stint in office. Perhaps he will refrain from contesting in 2029. Who knows what kind of leader the BJP has in 2029? He or she may have neither the charisma nor the political nous of Modi. Some opposition leaders might decide that they are better off waiting until Modi leaves before taking on the BJP. Banerjee is another charismatic leader. If she wins in 2024, it might be hard to displace her in 2029. Politics is a long game. Mamata Banerjee is mercurial. There is an “M” in her first name, and there is an “m” in mercurial. Banerjee must take the mercurial out of Mamata and become calm and composed and rejoice in her victory.
(The writer is an expert on energy and contributes regularly to publications in India and overseas)