Most commentators in India and many in the Western world seem to have taken for granted that Taliban 2.0 are going to be like the ones who took power after the fall of Najibullah in 1996.
Starting with the rooftop evacuation from the US embassy in Saigon, let us admit that had that evacuation been delayed for a few more minutes there might not have been any evacuation at all.
In the present case, the US and many other nations are evacuating their citizens days after the Taliban took over Kabul and became the masters of Afghanistan. In fact they have sent in 5,000 more troops to Kabul airport to ensure orderly evacuation.
Their helicopters are flying over Kabul from the embassy compound at will. The Americans had arrived at an agreement in Doha weeks if not months ago that the Taliban would not attack their troops during the pullout phases. Similarly while there have been stray incidents of brutality on women in Herat and a few other towns, no such incident has taken place in Kabul.
To the contrary, assurances have been given that women can continue to work. A single incident of brushing over a woman’s body on the wall of a beauty salon has again led to exaggerated statements of what is in store for them. It should be appreciated that the Talibs who took over in 1996 were straight from the madrassas in Pakistan.
They had not seen anything else and spoke no language other than their own and a smattering of Dari and Pushto. Their supreme leader, the one-eyed Mullah Omar, was more of an ascetic and reportedly unlettered. The Taliban leaders of today who will call the shots have seen the world, met many world leaders and while only a few speak English most understand it.
They appreciate the changes that have taken place in the country in the last twenty years. There is no way they will undo them. They have become worldly wise. There will be no civil war either. Their strategy was masterly. They concentrated largely on taking over the northern part of the country that is largely peopled by Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks.
In 2001 it was the Northern Alliance that rolled into Kabul across the Shomali Plains (after the carpet bombing by American heavy bombers) led by Gen. Bismillah Khan, defence minister in the departed government, on the left and Dostum on a few hundred Uzbek ponies yelling with flashing swords on the right (shades of Mongol hordes).
The bases of the warlords have been captured, Ismail Khan has been taken into custody and Atta Mohd. Noor as well as Abdul Rashid Dostum have crossed over to Uzbekistan. They will not be coming back. Hekmatyar who captured Kabul in 1996 has stayed away.
To ensure that village chiefs in these parts do not rise up the Taliban are likely to leave them alone to practice their customs. The Hazaras too will be well-treated to keep Tehran happy. The Taliban leadership will remain united. The talk of the Taliban leadership fracturing is hasty. The prize they have won is too big, the responsibility equally heavy.
They will remain cohesive with responsibility given to each with enough independence to take decisions. They would be fully alive to dissonance in public. Once the Taliban leaders have fully consolidated internally they will be able to give greater thought to international relations. To begin with they will honour their close relationship with Pakistan and China, mindful of the help given to capture the country.
It is likely that once they have found their feet they would like to come closer to the West to shake off their one-sided dependency. Friendly relations with Russia and the Central Asian Republics will be given priority. They are unlikely to allow the Al Qaeda or Isis to jeopardize their relationship with these close neighbours. In like manner they might not permit them to launch operations while on their soil.
India does not have to defend its backing of the previous government. They were helping them from day one and abandoning them when the chips are down is not what India does.The Taliban leadership would know that for most Afghans India is the most admired and trusted country.
As time goes on they too will build on it. India is not a country to be ignored. Hence India should follow an independent policy. It should not hesitate to make overtures to the Taliban boldly and directly. In the end the countries in the region will come to know that with the amount of US weapons that they have taken over they are more than a match for any neighbour that tries to exploit them. In a few years Pakistan will feel the pinch when the Taliban create their strategic depth across the Durand Line.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army)