Who will win the Delhi throne? Will the ‘Modi magic’ work in favour of the BJP or will Arvind Kejriwal’s development mantra enable him to retain power? Ask the AAP supporters and they claim that Kejriwal will come back with a bang. While a month ago many had claimed that it was a walkover for Kejriwal, now the same people admit that the contest is close. The goodwill for Prime Minister Modi remains largely intact — but the biggest challenge for the BJP is to convert that goodwill into votes.
These elections are crucial for the BJP, as a win in Delhi would improve the party’s morale as it has lost five states in the last one year. The BJP has not been in power since 1998. Also unlike other states, in Delhi, the BJP will have to face the challenge posed by Kejriwal. Though it is a triangular fight, it is now clear that the contest is between the AAP and the BJP, as the Congress remains a distant third.
The Congress lacks charismatic leaders at the local level. It also lacks organizational strength. There is a running battle between the new PCC president Subhash Chopra and the AICC in charge, P C Chacko. A fierce poll campaign is going on in Delhi with the three major stakeholders involved in a no-holds-barred fight. Their target is to connect with the 40 lakh voters directly.
Aam Aadmi Party is contesting all the 70 seats. The BJP is contesting in 67 seats while its NDA allies, JD (U) and Lok Janshakti Party, are contesting two and one respectively. The Congress is contesting in 66 seats leaving four for its partner. . The BJP is going all out to take advantage of the AAP’s anti incumbency. The BJP has invested in thousands of small roadside meetings and more than 50 public rallies so far.
Prime Minister Modi is expected to address one or two rallies nearer the polling date. The party has also fielded other BJP chief ministers like Yogi Adityanath, Jairam Thakur and T.S. Rawat to woo the voters from neighbouring states who live in Delhi. Purvanchalis, (25 per cent) Punjabis (35 per cent) and Muslims (12 per cent) are the three main blocs of significant voters in Delhi. Purvanchalis can tilt the balance in at least 25 constituencies.
Punjabi voters are scattered but they can influence in 28 constituencies. Muslims have a hold in over ten constituencies. These Muslim constituencies have witnessed anti-CAA protests, which might have an impact on the polls. Sikhs dominate in four constituencies and can influence in 15 constituencies. The AAP is looking to the slum and middle class votes as well as Muslims.
After its emergence in 2013, the AAP gained its vote share from the Congress. The party is now looking for support from the Muslims and youth. The Congress needs to retain its 23 per cent vote share it got in Lok Sabha 2019. As for the campaigns, the BJP is concentrating on the CAA and NRC and invokes nationalism while the AAP is depending on its performance. The Congress is banking on the work of late Sheila Dixit who ruled Delhi for 15 years until 2013.
However, Congress is quite disorganized. It has no local level leader of the stature of Kejriwal and Delhi has been giving a decisive vote so far. Since its spectacular assembly election victory in 2015, AAP hasn’t managed to win any election. Even in Delhi, the party first lost the Corporation election two years ago and then got decimated in the Lok Sabha 2019 election. The BJP is depending on its lead in 65 seats in Delhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls while the Congress was leading in five.
However, Kejriwal’s popularity level continues to be high because of the AAP government’s welfare schemes in education, health, water and electricity. Kejriwal has an advantage with a good track record and is a good chief ministerial face while the other two parties have no chief ministerial candidate. Two things are important in the upcoming polls. The first is whether the voters will vote differently for the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. If they do, then Kejriwal has a chance.
The second is how the Congress performs because in the previous two elections the AAP’s fortunes depended on the performance of the Congress. After all, the AAP has grown at the cost of the Congress as they share the same base voters. While the AAP had a sweep in 2015 polls at the cost of the Congress, but the Congress maintaining double digit vote share in 2019 showed a slide in AAP fortunes. Kejriwal has dug in his heels in Delhi in the past five years and has the support of thousands of slum dwellers and poorer sections. If they vote en bloc, then Kejriwal will come back as the chief minister again. As of now it is advantage Kejriwal.