Thirteen years ago, ‘Constitutional Monarchy’ paved the way for the establishment of the ‘Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal’, and since then exactly thirteen Prime Ministerial changes have taken place. Pushpa Kamal Dahal or Prachanda took over on 26 December 2022, after his previous stint as Prime Minister had lasted for 307 days (4 August 2016 to 7 June 2017), and the one prior to that for 280 days (18 August 2008 to 25 May 2009).
The revolving door at the Singha Durbar is increasingly less about ideological battles as much as it is about personal ambitions and unnatural alliances.
The recently concluded National Elections to the House of Representatives and the postresults ‘re-coalition’ situation (from that of the pre poll status) suggests the implausibility of a stable and secure Nepal government.
It is rife with reneged commitments, volte faces, implosive contradictions, unhinged ambitions, and vested interests. They are sure to continue the Russian roulette of Nepali politics.
The one-time guerrilla leader popularly called Prachanda (‘fierce one’) had led a bloody decade-long insurgent movement against the Shah monarchy ~ his post monarchial politics have been consumed with his own ‘palace intrigues’ with Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli (KPS Oli), a co-communist with whom he has had a tenuous relationship ever since.
They have routinely swapped Prime Ministerial posts begrudgingly, with Oli outsmarting Prachanda (twice) for decidedly longer tenures and the bad blood between the two is so severe that not only did Prachanda pull the rug from the fifth constituent assembly with the jointly merged Communist party prematurely (the five year term was to end in March 2023), but he also got into a pre-poll alliance with the traditional rivals of the Communists i.e., the Nepal Congress.
When the results came out, the unusual ‘Democratic Left Alliance’ composed of the Nepal Congress and Prachanda’s Maoist Centre (along with a couple of other alliance partners) seemed better positioned to make the government than KPS Oli’s alliance ‘bloc’ of equally unlikely allies. Nepal Congress was the single largest party with 89 seats and Prachanda’s Maoist Centre a distant third with 32 seats (Oli’s CPN UML had secured 78 seats). This made the overambitious Prachanda’s bargaining power within the ‘Democratic Left Alliance’ weak, as it was apparent and logical that the Nepal Congress would seek the Prime Ministerial post.
That is when the wily KPS Oli decided to swoop in and make a calculated concession to his nemesis, Prachanda, with whom he had had a bitter and very public split just months ago. Prachanda took the bait immediately as with just 32 seats (down from 49) and merely 11.13 per cent of popular votes cast, it was too tempting an offer to refuse from Oli to join hands and take over as the Prime Minister.
Thus, Prachanda did yet another flipflop and assumed Prime Ministership, with a shadowy KPS Oli biding his time on the sidelines, offering tactical support.
Nepal’s already shaky economy that almost went into a near meltdown recently, is now faced with an equally tremulous government with undercurrents of composition, ambition and history which suggests that it is unlikely to sustain.
In the theatre of the bizarre that is Nepali politics, KPS Oli’s CPN-UML’s alliance with the promonarchy, Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), is unbelievable given RPP’s determined right wing agenda of reversing the Republican set-up, federalism and also secularism ~ the exact changes that were once battled by Communist and Maoist forces against the Shah Monarchy. Such arrangements along with ideologically suspect candidates who were simply given the ticket owing to ‘winnability’ makes the entire governance edifice extremely suspect.
Meanwhile, by sacrificing the Prime Ministerial ambition (temporarily?) Oli has already secured the right to have his own candidate as the President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Chief Ministers of provinces and key ministries. All these be his invaluable support-system, when he too decides to pull the rug from under Prachanda.
Understandably, Delhi too is stunned with the sudden realignment of political forces that is predicated on the ostensibly ‘anti-India’ stance of Oli’s politics.
However, to prove his ‘Leftist’ credentials and woo the cadres for any eventuality, Prachanda too will have to match Oli or ratchet the anti-India rhetoric even further to retain relevance. The bogey of revising the Friendship Treaty signed by the Rana rulers in 1950 or the contentious Susta and Kalapani border disputes may assume centerstage, yet again.
The base for the escalated rhetoric was laid when Oli had recklessly implied that efforts to oust him started when his government redrew the cartographical lines on Indo-Nepal border ~ the finger of accusation pointing to Delhi was unmistakable.
Following many missteps by Delhi over the years, this foxy move by Oli fueled further suspicion and emotion with Delhi, and the option of China was always dangled as a counterpoise. Unfortunately, the ‘pro-anti’ sentiment towards Delhi has become the centrepoint of Nepali politics and Oli (as also Prachanda) have exploited the same, even when not justified.
Both Prachanda and Oli are past masters of ‘use and throw’ tactics, even onto each other. In his first coming as the Prime Minister in 2008, after elbowing out Girija Prasad Koirala of Nepal Congress from the unified face of protests, Prachanda explained, “I never think that I have cheated anyone. But in course of advancing my cause, I might have made compromises and come closer to one or another at different times. But there was never any conspiracy there. It was our philosophy of cooperating with others to defeat the primary enemy.”
Such compromises have become especially creative, forthcoming, and routine when it comes to outsmarting each other.
It is early days to say whether it is Prachanda with 32 out of 275 seats in the fray or Oli breathing down Prachanda’s neck who will have the last laugh (or even the largest party i.e., Nepal Congress).
Irrespective, the current development does not augur well for India or for that matter for Nepal, as the continuing game of thrones in Kathmandu is set to hijack and deflect the far more important agenda of basic governance. Instead, Nepal will see much grandstanding, theatrics, and intrigues.