Pakistan is stuck in time, as far as international diplomacy goes. The essential narrative, expectations and language that define its sovereign aspirations have not changed, despite the tectonic changes globally. Its famed and institutionalised duplicitousness often tests the dexterity of its leadership, that necessitates hopping from the aspired Pakistan of Qaid-e-Azam to the militaristic bluster of its Generals, to the religious piety of its ubiquitous Mullahs.
This schizophrenia is tantamount to the infamous Pakistani track of running with the hare and hunting with the hound. The irony is writ all over as Prime Minister Imran Khan cries himself hoarse complaining ‘Pakistan is the biggest victim of terrorism’ just when he seeks to navigate Pakistan from getting ‘blacklisted’ for sponsoring terrorism, as per the global watchdog, FATF (Financial Action Task Force). From ‘allies’ like the United States, ‘fraternal relations’ with Saudi Arabia, ‘brotherly relations’ with Iran, to ‘inseparable brothers’ in Afghanistan ~ all are increasingly queasy for the gaps between what Pakistan says, implies and finally does? This leaves the increasingly isolated and cash-strapped Pakistan with the only option that asks for no corrective measures from the shady Pakistani ways, that is China.
Flowery descriptions like ‘Saudi Arabia’s closest Muslim ally’, ‘special relationship’ notwithstanding, nothing signifies the near-pariah regression for Pakistan like the spurning of Islamabad by Saudi Arabia, which bears a symbolically venerated relevance in the Ummah (Muslim world). This rebuff is especially significant for a constitutional ‘Islamic Republic’ that vests its popular identity and existential purpose in religiousity. But this fracture is a recent development, as Saudi Arabia more than any other nation has supported Pakistan since its independence. Riyadh openly sided with Islamabad in 1965 and 1971 and in the 1980s funded Afghan mujahedeen operations.
Pakistani troops were sent to safeguard Saudi Arabia in the Gulf War. Saudi Arabia was the only country to be taken into confidence before Pakistan conducted its nuclear test. Both routinely posited Kashmir on the global centerstage ~ basically the Islamic world’s most affluent nation and arguably the most militarily powerful (and only nuclear) nation converged on reciprocal sensitivities, theatres and urgencies. However, the long-lasting honeymoon is seemingly over.
Part of this is attributable to the change of track under Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman who seeks to go beyond exporting the ‘religio- oil’ admixture towards a more sustainable-diversified economy, wherein larger markets like India make more socioeconomic sense. Part also has to do with Pakistan trying to outsmart the Saudis and their leadership within the Ummah, by cozying up to the rival camp of the Turkey-Iran-Malaysia triad. In the evolving world, sovereign positions and rallying cries are getting recalibrated with new realities which require that countries renege on the past and appropriate the ‘new ask’. The Pakistani machinations that go into ‘terror support’, religio-fundamentalism and nuancing Israel, are amongst some of the changing tracks that have completely missed the Islamabad establishment ~ only to get a rude wake-up call of the inevitable by getting disowned even by the likes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In an unprecedentedly cold and unforgiving move, the Saudis who had earlier extended a bailout package of $6.2 billion for the desperately cash-strapped Pakistan suddenly ‘stopped’ the said aid mid-course and sought earlier repayment. Unlike the relatively light rebuke following Islamabad’s earlier refusal to be drawn into Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, owing to combustive sectarian undercurrents in Pakistan itself, this time the retaliation from Riyadh built up to become relentless and unmistakable. A series of bilateral barbs had preceded the final move of aid-stoppage, including the Saudis pressuring Pakistan from pulling out of an international summit in Malaysia (showcased as an Turkey- Iran show), Saudis showing disinterest in raking up Kashmir on cue from Pakistan, as also tightening work imperatives for the 2.5 million Pakistani workers whose remittances make for over 25 per cent of Pakistan’s foreign reserves.
The warning like belligerence expressed by Pakistan’s foreign minister against Saudi Arabia was to be the literal last nail in the coffin, and all subsequent reassurances like ‘Pakistan stands shoulder- to-shoulder with the Kingdom’ notwithstanding, the Saudis have maintained the early repayment displeasure. It is believed that Egypt will increasingly replace Pakistan in providing the military wherewithal for the Saudi kingdom.
Now, China has agreed to ‘rebailout’ Pakistan with $1.5 billion immediately to repay the $2 billion of Saudi Arabian debt, that has/will, become due by next month. Coming as it does on the heels of Pakistan’s inability to get the $6 billion IMF program restored, Islamabad is now solely banking on Beijing to avoid going belly-up. In this deteriorated and isolated status for Pakistan, the Turkey-Iran-Malaysia ‘alternative’ cannot compensate for the economic aid, trade, energy-needs or the sheer scale of remittances, as generated by Pakistan, from Saudi Arabia.
The socio-economic-diplomatic vulnerability is getting temporarily addressed by China, and the long-term consequences of sovereign surrender and stranglehold, are guaranteed. The nature of Chinese support has also worryingly morphed from promoting bilateral trade in local currencies to usage for paying other foreign debt ~ a classic ‘debt-trap’ in the making that will make Pakistan completely beholden to China.
Pakistan has boxed itself into a corner with its bullheadedness to remain mired in the past, when even those who instigated, supported and defined the definitive narrative of the ‘past’, have moved on.
Getting exposed and left to fend for itself by earlier ‘allies’ like the United States (by calling out the Pakistani role in terror and thereafter stopping aid) could be lazily contextualised to the latent street sentiment of the ‘Evil West’, but explaining the break-up with the Arab sheikhdoms and Saudi Arabia in particular will be a tall ask for the Pakistani establishment.
For now, the Pakistanis are dutifully repaying the Saudi debt and unleashing a series of rapprochement visits to Riyadh, but the reality of the only other person in the form of a menacing Dragon in the room, remains. The fact that the principal opposition in Pakistani politics currently is an old and trusted Saudi hand i.e. Nawaz Sharif, makes it difficult for Imran Khan to cast any aspersions.
Only a change of landscape with the incoming Biden administration or change of government in Islamabad itself, can reset the free-fall towards becoming a vassal state of China, as everyone else has left the building.
The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd) and former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry