The year gone by stands as a glaring stitch in the tapestry of climate change, revealing the harsh reality of India’s warming landscape. The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) recent revelation that the country endured its second-hottest year since 1901 is more than just a statistical data point. It is a visceral reminder of the palpable impact climate patterns can have on our daily lives. The numbers tell a story of relentless ascent ~ a worrying 0.65°C above the longterm average.
The broader narrative emerges as a deeply concerning trend. Five of the hottest years in Indian history have unfolded within the last 14 years, underlining a rapid acceleration in warming and an unsettling shift in weather patterns. We’re not merely witnessing climate change. We’re living it. El Niño, that familiar culprit in climate discussions, played a pivotal role in orchestrating the symphony of scorching temperatures across India in 2023. The signature heating of a strip of Pacific Ocean waters led to higher temperatures and reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. As the year unfolded, we saw the consequences unfold ~ from extreme cyclone activity in the north Indian Ocean to heavy rains, floods, landslides, and a sombre toll of human lives.
December brought a fleeting reprieve with welcome rains in the southern peninsula, offering a momentary sigh of relief. However, it was a patch of silver in a stormy sky, with the north Indian Ocean witnessing above-average cyclone activity, including three ferocious extremely severe cyclonic storms. Despite the tumultuous weather, monsoon rainfall across the country remained below the long-period average. The sobering statistics reveal more than just rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns. They narrate tales of hardship and loss, with states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh, and Sikkim repeatedly grappling with the consequences ~ be it thunderstorms, lightning, floods, or landslides. The toll on human lives is stark, with 1,270 people falling victim to thunderstorms and lightning, 860 to floods, and 160 to heatwaves. Looking ahead to January 2024, the forecast is nuanced: colder mornings for much of the country, belownormal daytime temperatures in central and northwestern regions, and a potential cold wave in central India.
The dichotomy deepens as parts of Peninsular and Northeast India are predicted to witness above-normal maximum temperatures. The month may bring dense fog to parts of Northwest and East India, wrapping them in a chilly embrace. Amidst these intricacies of weather patterns, a glimmer of hope emerges. Despite the persistence of “The Boy” till March 2024, a forecast of higher-than-usual rainfall in January, amounting to 118 per cent in the long-term average, offers solace. This surge could prove a lifeline for rabi crops in Northwest India, especially following the region’s 35 per cent shortfall in December. The story of India’s 2023 is a stark reminder that the climate crisis is not a distant future. It’s unfolding on our doorsteps.