A worrying aspect of some extremely costly and threatening conflicts in recent times has been that they seem to be getting prolonged. The added risk is that the more prolonged they are, there are increased chances of escalation and a wider conflict which would be even more threatening for world peace. In the case of the Gaza conflict, at least several efforts for achieving ceasefire and peace have been made (all such efforts have also included the release of Israeli hostages) and for a considerable stretch of time there were reports on an almost daily basis regarding the progress (or otherwise) of these efforts.
Qatar and Egypt in particular have been involved in these efforts but they have been seeking the cooperation of others too, particularly the USA, in their efforts. The USA also claimed to have taken the initiative for peace at times. Then, even more significantly, there have been UN resolutions calling for a ceasefire. Despite this nothing has been achieved and the extreme distress of the people of Gaza is nowhere near ending despite increasing worldwide concern. On the contrary, other fronts of this conflict, which have existed from the beginning, appear to show a worsening situation. In this context, there was much concern recently regarding the increased chance of a bigger conflict between Israeli forces and Hezbollah on the Lebanon front.
In addition there have been several reports regarding the increasing violence and aggression in the West Bank region also. While in Gaza at least peacemaking efforts have been seen somewhat frequently, even though without raising much hope, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict the visibility of any serious efforts is even less. Of course, a significant peace effort was made at a very early stage of the war which had raised hope of ending this war within two months or so. But this effort was sabotaged by powerful forces. After this, no serious and sincere effort involving both sides has been seen. This is extremely sad and worrying due to the high risks of escalation and widening of this particular war. As it is, it is proving to be the most costly on-going war in terms of loss of human lives. However, the even bigger danger is that this war has the highest chances of leading to a direct confrontation between USA/Nato and Russia.
These two sides have about 11,000 nuclear weapons with them. Any possibility of a direct confrontation is widely seen to be a very serious threat not just to world peace but even to world survival. Keeping in view all these factors, the prolonging of the Palestinian and Ukraine conflicts is deeply worrying. At the same time, several other serious conflicts, like the civil war in Sudan, which are relatively much easier to resolve, have also dragged on for a long time inflicting high costs, particularly in terms of displacement of people. An overview of all the conflicts in the world also reveals that early solutions are getting more elusive. The Global Peace Index (GPI) which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, can provide an overview of the existing situation.
Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI has been frequently mentioned as the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. Its 18th edition in 2024 has presented important data which show the rising incidence and costs of conflicts and wars. One of the most significant findings of the report is that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are greater now than they have been since the end of the Second World War. This is in line with several warnings voiced by leading commentators regarding the possibilities of the Ukraine war or the Gaza conflict escalating into much wider wars.
In addition, the number of conflicts is also increasing in various parts of the world. As the GPI tells us, there are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of World War II, with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements. This is deeply worrying, as this means that wars now tend to drag on for longer periods and the capacity of the international community or the United Nations to end them soon has decreased. This also means that the distress suffered by people due to conflicts and wars has increased. The GPI tells us further that the number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period. If only four per cent of the conflicts are now ending with peace agreements, this is surely bad news for the forces of peace.
What has gone wrong? This question should be discussed very widely and seriously by all those who are committed to world peace. The latest GPI tells us that conflicts are also becoming more internationalised, with as many as 92 countries now engaged in conflicts beyond their borders, the most since the inception of the GPI in 2008, complicating negotiation processes for a lasting peace and prolonging conflicts.
Trying to explain this worrying phenomenon, the GPI argues that the “internationalisation of conflict is driven by increased great power competition and the rise of middle level powers, who are becoming more active in their regions.” Further, GPI 2024 tells us that although the measures of militarisation had been improving for the first 16 years of the GPI, the trend has now reversed and in 2024, militarisation deteriorated in 108 countries. The combination of these factors, GPI argues, means that the likelihood of another major conflict is higher than at any time since the inception of the GPI.
This should be a wake-up call as this finding is based on a lot of data and information. While the GPI indicates disturbing trends at several levels, its findings relating to increased possibilities of a bigger conflict and the decreasing possibilities of peace agreements contributing to the end of conflicts are the most worrying. Clearly there is much greater urgency for strengthening all forces of peace. The peace movements all over the world should be stronger and there should be much greater continuity of many-sided activities with the aim of strengthening peace.
(The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include When the Two Streams Met, Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children and A Day in 2071.)