Managers of the economy could soon rival politicians and lawyers in selectively interpreting data to suit their convenience, a process facilitated by equally selective yardsticks against which their performance is to be assessed.
Now that a report from the Reserve Bank eventually puts a “fix” on certain aspects of the demonetisation exercise, and the figures are not exactly flattering of the claims made immediately after 8 November 2016, there appears to be a retrospective revision of the objectives of that unprecedented action.
Claiming success, as politicians are ever wont to do, the finance minister now states that the aim “was not confiscation of money. The object of demonetisation was that India is a predominantly high cash economy and therefore that scenario needs to be significantly altered. We intended to give a blow to black money and expand the tax base”.
That position is at some variance with the emphasis on unearthing unaccounted wealth that had initially been heralded as the cutting-edge of the move ~ going cashless, widening the tax base, and expanding the banking systems were all “addon” benefits. Clearly there is a mismatch between what is now being said and what had then been thundered from the rooftops.
With 99 per cent of the scrapped notes now back in the system, an insignificant quantum of fake currency detected, and considerable expenditure being incurred on the continuing printing of new currency (which negates the “less-cash” boast), the government now faces a distinct backlash.
The Opposition is going full-blast, “private” analysts do not have that luxury, hence keep their lips zipped. Without entering murky political waters, it would be fair to ask the finance ministry if it had not blundered when “tainting” all cash, or if officials can honestly justify the tremendous inconvenience to which the common man was subjected, the dislocation and disruption of the informal sector of the economy to which the poor belong.
The contention that terrorism has been curbed is only partially valid: overdue action to choke terror-funding has had greater impact. And in the Kashmir Valley the “fatigue factor” has affected those who aided militant violence ~ there has been little change of heart.
The jury will long be “out” on whether November 8 was “Deliverance Day” or closer to Doomsday for those still suffering. A grim reminder of what Dr Manmohan Singh said when first donning a ministerial turban ~ “too much politics is played with the economy”.
Quite peculiar is the argument that the people endorsed demonetisation because they voted BJP in some places. Or did not resort to violent protest in others.
Legendary is the resilience of our people to cope with flood, earthquake, riot, drought, famine etc. Will politically-motivated economic adventurism be added to that list? Do they