The 26th Conference of Parties (COP 26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) presently underway at Glasgow is hailed as the most important climate-related conference to date.
Stalled for a year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, this summit is significant as it has the primary objective of setting rules for the implementation of the Paris Agreement of 2015, which as a legally binding and universal treaty was a landmark achievement in over 20 years of the UN’s climate negotiations. According to the UN’s Emissions Gap Report, the world is headed for a 2.7-degree Celsius (°C) rise in global temperature above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which would result in calamitous changes in the Earth’s climate and disaster for most living species.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report reveals that emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from human activities are responsible for roughly 1.1°C of warming since 1850, and unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale cuts in GHG emissions, controlling global warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be out of reach.
In Glasgow the attempt is to restrict temperature rise to 1.5°C, which means that countries have to commit to reduce far greater emissions than they pledged at the Paris CoP21. We receive warnings constantly about climate change-induced extreme weather events: heat waves, cyclones, floods, droughts and wildfires.
The previous decade was the warmest on record and globe-warming emissions have risen faster than anticipated. In order to limit the impact of climate change within tolerable levels, global emissions need to be halved by 2030 and net-zero should be accomplished by 2050.?
Four aims are sought at Glasgow: 1) Securing global net-zero by mid-century and keeping 1.5° within reach with ambitious 2030 emissions reductions; 2) Protecting communities and natural habitats, restoration of ecosystems, building warning systems with resilient infrastructure; 3) Mobilising finance. Developed countries to promise to raise at least $100billion annually to finance mitigation measures in the Third World; 4) Working together for accelerated action on climate change through collaboration.
Thus far, the two outcomes from Glasgow are to curtail global methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 from 2020 levels, and a Deforestation Pledge to stop and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has proposed a five-point climate action strategy for India, namely, Taking non-fossil energy capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030; Meeting 50 per cent of energy requirements from renewables by 2030; Reduction in the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes from the present till 2030; Reducing carbon intensity of the economy by less than 45 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030; Achieving net-zero by 2070.
India with 17 per cent of the world’s population is one among the largest emitters of GHG and contributes about five per cent of global emissions. But India is fourth in installed renewable energy capacity and non-fossil fuel energy has increased by 25 per cent over the past seven years and at present is 40 per cent of the total energy mix.
India has been arguing for the controversial Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities principle that the onus should be on the developed countries, who need to accept their responsibility for the majority of human emissions since 1850 and who need to advance their net-zero targets, draw up plans for shorter-term climate goals, and deliver the finance essential for the developing countries to adjust to climate action.
At COP26 India will underscore the necessity to address climate change in a way that incorporates equal allocation of carbon space, assistance for mitigation and adaptation and resilience-building actions, climate justice, mobilisation of investment, technology transfers and the importance of a sustainable lifestyle for green and comprehensive growth.
Mr. Modi is given to grand promises on the global stage, but his pledges will require almost instant shifts in the quality of governance, massive reskilling, and making India much more attractive as an investment destination. Provided these aspects can be delivered – and it is a huge ask – India can be a global beacon in arresting and reversing climate change and ensuring sustainable development.
At the COP26 summit, the world’s nations have possibly the final opportunity to tackle global warming and commit to appropriate GHG mitigation targets to keep the 1.5°C goal alive. Whether the Paris Agreement will turn out to be a success depends on what transpires in Glasgow, while Covid-19 has provided an opportunity to build the global economy with emphasis on a green recovery path.
(The writers are, respectively, a Consultant at ICRIER, New Delhi, and a former foreign secretary)