On the anniversary of the tragic death of Mahsa Amini, the United States, Britain, and Canada, along with the European Union, have once again imposed sanctions on Iran. These sanctions are in response to the Iranian regime’s violent suppression of nationwide protests following Amini’s death and its ongoing efforts to silence dissent and restrict internet access. Amini was arrested by Iran’s “moral police” for not wearing a hijab and died in custody on September 16 last year. While this represents a renewed effort to pressurise the Iranian government, it must be asked if sanctions truly have an effect on a regime that has weathered such measures for decades. Iran’s history with sanctions dates back to the 1979 revolution and it has grown accustomed to navigating these economic and political challenges.
Over the years, the international community has imposed a variety of sanctions on Iran, targeting its nuclear programme, human rights abuses, and support for terrorism. However, Iran has shown resilience in the face of these measures, adapting its economy and policies to mitigate their impact. One key reason why sanctions often fail is the Iranian regime’s ability to control information and suppress dissent. Teheran has a track record of cracking down on protests and dissenting voices, as seen in the aftermath of Amini’s death. This oppressive response makes it difficult for internal opposition movements to gain traction, even with the added pressure of sanctions. Moreover, the lack of clear leadership within protest movements has hindered their effectiveness. While the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement and other protests have demonstrated widespread discontent with the regime, the absence of a unified leadership structure has made it challenging to coordinate and sustain these efforts over time. Without strong leadership, protests can struggle to achieve concrete political change. The Iranian government has also employed a range of tactics to counter the impact of sanctions. These include diversifying its economy, seeking alternative trading partners and networks to bypass restrictions. Iran’s ability to adapt and find workarounds has allowed it to mitigate the economic hardships brought on by sanctions. Furthermore, sanctions can sometimes have unintended consequences, affecting the civilian population more than the ruling elite.
Ordinary Iranians often bear the brunt of economic hardships caused by sanctions, leading to a sense of collective suffering that can be manipulated by the regime to bolster its narrative of resistance to external pressure. While sanctions may be intended to pressure the Iranian government into making concessions or changing its behaviour, they have yet to yield significant results. Iran’s leadership remains committed to its own survival and has shown a remarkable ability to weather economic storms. Thus, the latest round of sanctions imposed by the USA, Britain, Canada, and the European Union, while well-intended, faces significant challenges in impacting the Iranian regime. It is clear that the path to meaningful change in Iran remains uncertain.