All is not well in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance with cracks appearing in the grouping. Though BJP has a majority of its own, it has 33 allies most of which are small parties.
The party has grown beyond its own imagination in the past 28 years. There was a time when the BJP was untouchable to other political parties. From that position it has become the largest political party. It has overtaken the Congress and has also achieved a pan-Indian presence.
While the NDA is expanding in the North-east with the formation of the Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya governments last week, the BJP has been trying hard to expand the party in the south.
While it has achieved penetration in the North-east, the South is becoming difficult. In such a situation, it is a setback for the BJP when its southern ally, the Telugu Desam, pulled out its ministers from the Narendra Modi government last week.
The TDP is the second largest ally in the Lok Sabha. The TDP has always been wary of this alliance because of the fear of losing Muslim votes but due to political compulsions party supremo Nara Chandrababu Naidu had tied up with the saffron party from 1998 to 2004 and again from 2014 to the present day and also enjoyed sharing power.
However, the real reason for the strain between the BJP and the Telugu Desam is the upcoming election to the State Assembly and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Trouble has been brewing for some time as the TDP has been making public statements against the betrayal of the BJP-led Modi Government.
Now Naidu has queered the pitch by pulling out ministers, which might lead to the TDP leaving the NDA nearer the polls. Naidu clarified after pulling out his ministers, “This is a first step. We will decide what to do next. We will see how the Centre responds.” This means that he is keeping the door open.
Naidu knows that he has not been able to deliver on the promises he had made because of various reasons. But lack of funds was also one of the problems. Unlike Vajpayee or earlier Deve Gowda or Gujral, Modi does not yield to Naidu’s blackmail, mainly because his government is not dependent on TDP MPs.
Secondly, the TDP is worried about the saffron party eating into its votes as the BJP can grow only at the cost of regional parties. Thirdly the BJP is also making efforts to tie up with the YSR Congress as an alternative. What better way to deal with the Centre than by raising the emotional issue of Centre’s betrayal in not providing funds?
The BJP is today in the same position as the Congress was in after taking a decision to bifurcate the state in 2014. Naidu has made the BJP a villain that betrayed the interests of the people of Andhra Pradesh. Secondly, he has projected himself as the leader who has taken care of interests of the people of the state.
Thirdly, Naidu has made it difficult for the YSR Congress to tie up with the saffron party and for the BJP to campaign in the state, using this emotional issue to his advantage cleverly.
After four years of having to deal with limited access to power, the NDA allies are now getting restive, especially in the belief that the BJP is unlikely to win as many seats as it did in 2014. One after the other they are openly giving vent to their ire and complaints.
Exasperated at not getting any leeway, the Shiv Sena, which is the BJP’s oldest ally, announced a few weeks ago it would contest the 2019 Lok Sabha elections separately but is yet to withdraw either from Union or Maharashtra governments. The Sena leader Sanjay Raut said, ”Allies no longer have good relations with BJP. Gradually their grudges will spill out and eventually they’ll walk out of the alliance.”
Yet another old and trusted ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal has been sulking and protesting, in its own way. The gulf in this case is bigger than even with the Shiv Sena. The SAD has broken its silence now, to announce that it will contest the Haryana Assembly elections on its own.
The BJP’s coalition experiment with the PDP too has not been much of a success as it was an uneasy marriage right from the beginning. The PDP is unhappy with the BJP’s governing mechanism. The BJP-PDP alliance in Jammu and Kashmir is indeed a tightrope walk.
In Bihar, although chief minister Nitish Kumar has been putting up a brave face nobody has been lending an ear to his demand for special status to the state It is a fact that BJP as of today does not need any ally’s support to survive at the Centre. But what if it falls short of the required numbers after the 2019 polls?
Political developments since the Gujarat assembly polls – reinforced by by-election results in Rajasthan – show that the party is losing its sheen of invincibility. The BJP is facing major anti-incumbency in poll-bound Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. The BJP needs allies as much as the allies need the BJP.