In the labyrinth of geopolitical intricacies, India finds itself at a critical juncture in its relationship with Myanmar. Recent developments in Chin state, notably the establishment of the Chinland Council and concurrent political shifts in Mizoram, demand a nuanced and strategic approach from New Delhi.
The evolving landscape, marked by the Myanmar military junta’s diminishing authority and the Chin National Front (CNF) army’s territorial gains, underscores the imperative for India to recalibrate its diplomatic strategy. The military junta’s substantial losses in the wake of ‘Operation 1027,’ orchestrated by the Brotherhood Alliance, have unveiled the cracks in the authority of the country’s rulers. The Chin National Front’s advancements in capturing strategic towns further complicate the geopolitical chessboard. As India reassesses its approach, the growing interactions between the CNF and New Delhi signal potential shifts in alliances, hinting at a delicate dance of diplomacy. India’s reaffirmation of support for Myanmar’s journey towards a federal democracy during recent consultations is a diplomatic signal echoing concerns over the junta’s inability to manage border complexities. However, the expressions of gratitude from the CNF to India introduce a layer of complexity, questioning the nature of evolving relationships and potential realignments in the region. The establishment of the Chinland Council and its mandate to set up a government within 60 days add a dynamic dimension to the situation.
The renaming of ‘Chin State’ to ‘Chinland’ sparks questions about aspirations for independence. The Council’s pursuit of self-determination and sovereignty within the framework of a federal union poses challenges and opportunities for India, necessitating careful consideration. The geopolitical chessboard also implicates India’s interests in border security, countering China’s influence, and safeguarding crucial business ventures. The implications on connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport and the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway project, traversing Chin State, add urgency to India’s diplomatic calculus. Mizoram’s recent election introduces another layer to IndoMyanmar relations, with new chief minister Lalduhoma expressing support for reunification of communities. The historical bond between Chin and Mizo communities, despite concerns over illicit drugs, highlights the importance of positive ties. As India navigates this complex landscape, addressing refugee issues and coordinating border security emerge as critical considerations.
The 60,000 internally displaced people in Chin State, coupled with the surge in opium cultivation following the coup, necessite urgent attention. Coordinated efforts between the Chinland Council, the state of Mizoram, and the Union government become paramount to addressing these humanitarian and security challenges. India stands at the crossroads of a transforming Myanmar. As the Chinland Council shapes a new governance structure, India’s diplomatic tight-rope walk involves balancing regional interests, fostering positive alliances, and ensuring stability in the face of a weakening military junta. The diplomatic challenge lies not only in reaffirming commitment to federal democracy but also in adapting to the evolving dynamics, recognising opportunities, and mitigating potential risks in this complex geopolitical puzzle.