It is customary to use the term “referendum” whenever simultaneous polls are being conducted to state legislatures ~ though the implications of their outcome has little more than moral impact on the government at the Centre. Technically there would be no direct outcome for New Delhi of the coming elections to five assemblies, but in the surcharged political atmosphere the spin-off could be considerable. Not only on “moral” grounds, but because they might set the future course of Indian politics. Thus the results scheduled to be announced on 11 March will be decisive ~ if not for the BJP then certainly for the Congress, Samajwadi and BSP ~ which underscores the acceptance of UP as the “heartland”: though a couple of side stories could also be scripted.
Just how high are the stakes is evident from the demand that the presentation of the Union budget be deferred, a demand rooted in the apprehension that the BJP would offer more sops than what the Prime Minister announced on New Year’s Eve to woo the voter. That adds up to proof of how easily the voter may be swayed, and the secondary role that “performance” plays in the electoral slugfest. Also proof (which will undoubtedly be disputed) that Modi sarkar generates little confidence that it will rise above using its clout on Raisina Hill for electoral advantage.
The BJP does have cause for some worry too: will the verdict in March confirm its claim that the masses solidly support demonetisation? After its runaway success in the parliamentary poll, the BJP’s performance has been wishy-washy, it could do with a boost.
The Congress would be desperate to improve its fortunes: retaining Uttarakhand and Manipur is just not good enough. Having been reduced to a walk-on role in UP, it would need an improved performance there to dispel the impression that Rahul Gandhi lacked “what it takes”, but comments from its chief ministerial aspirant suggest it has already settled for crumbs the Samajwadi might toss its way. Those crumbs could indeed be limited, Akhilesh Yadav may seem to be gaining the upper hand in the internal scrap, but with Mayawati snapping at his heels and the BJP emerging with all guns blazing, the Samajwadi will need more than its “cycle” to romp home again.
Goa might, just might, offer prospects of a consolation prize for the Congress and thus (with UP a virtual non-starter) its credentials would rest on snatching Punjab from the Akali-BJP alliance. For the Aam Aadmi Party too the stakes are high ~ it needs voters in Punjab and Goa to liberate it from the “upstart” tag. As for the Election Commission, as always, it will be a challenge to keep the exercise clean.