India is once again staring at the prospect of a reduced wheat harvest as above-average temperatures threaten the winter-sown crop. With March expected to be unseasonably warm, the country’s wheat farmers ~ particularly in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh ~ find themselves vulnerable to yet another weather-induced setback. The looming crisis highlights a troubling trend: climate variability is becoming a persistent disruptor in India’s food production, making it imperative to rethink agricultural strategies. The wheat crop, now at a critical grain-filling stage, is highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations. A premature rise in temperatures can shrink grain size, reducing both yield and quality. This was evident in 2022 when an unexpected heatwave forced India to halt wheat exports, exacerbating global supply concerns.
If this year’s weather pattern follows a similar trajectory, the government may have no choice but to reconsider its import policies, despite existing duties aimed at protecting domestic producers. For the past three years, wheat production has struggled to meet expectations. Rising domestic prices, a reflection of dwindling stockpiles, indicate that another shortfall could have inflationary consequences. If yields are significantly affected, authorities may be compelled to lower or eliminate the 40 per cent import tax, allowing private traders to bring in wheat from overseas markets. This would be a notable shift, given India’s long standing effort to maintain self-sufficiency in food grains.
Beyond wheat, other winter-sown crops like chickpea and rapeseed may also suffer under the rising temperatures, further straining India’s food supply and rural economy. Heat stress can lower oilseed yields, affecting edible oil production, while reduced chickpea output could dri – ve up prices of a key protein source for millions. A broader impact on multiple crops highlights the need for an agricultural strategy that is not just crop-specific but takes a holistic view of climate adaptation across the farming sector. However, the deeper concern extends beyond one season’s harvest. The recurrence of extreme weather events underscores the urgent need to make Indian agriculture more climate-resilient.
The reliance on traditional wheat varieties, which are ill-equipped to handle erratic temperature patterns, leaves farmers exposed to risks. Research and large scale deployment of heat-resistant wheat strains must be prioritised. Additionally, water management strategies shou – ld be strengthened, as higher temperatures lead to increased irrigation demand. Policymakers must also prepare for greater volatility in agricultural production. Beyond offering short-term relief through import adjustments, long-term measures should focus on diversifying crop choices, enhancing weather forecasting capabilities, and expanding crop insurance coverage.
Farmers need timely information and financial security to navigate these recurring challenges. Climate variability is no longer an abstract future concern ~ it is a pressing reality that is already affecting India’s food security. If wheat production falls for a fourth consecutive year, the broader implications could be severe, impacting rural livelihoods and driving up food prices. The time has come for a coordinated approach, combining scientific advancements, adaptive farming practices, and responsive policymaking, to ensure that Indian agriculture remains resilient in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather.