The second wave of Covid-19 is raging across India, showing the full range and might of this novel coronavirus. It is an unprecedented pandemic, a scenario unheard of for at least one century. The recent research studies on the origins of Covid-19 in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies as well as the report published by the American Department of State in January 2021 claim that Covid-19 is a laboratoryescaped virus, which was unleashed on the world from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in China.
Considering the fact that the Chinese State and media are in a frenzy to project China as the saviour of humanity in these dire times, this revelation sits at odds with the dominant Chinese discourse. Questions are being raised about the efficacy of Chinese gain-of-function experiments and the costs the world has to pay for such a risky scientific experiment. However, with regard to the South Asian region, where China is attempting to increase its heft, the fact that Covid-19 actually came from China itself and the bamboo curtain around its ‘scientific research’ should provoke additional caution in the minds of countries in this region.
America’s State Department in January 2021 published a report saying there has been ample evidence to prove that the Covid-19 virus did not jump from bats to humans; rather it escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in the city of Wuhan. Further research on this topic by people like Nicholas Wade has brought light on the idea that the basic difference between SARS-1 that spread as an epidemic in 2003 and the SARS-2 Covid-19 is the fact that there is ample evidence of SARS-1 having spread from host species to humans via intermediate links.
However, there is practically no intermediate specie between host species and humans in the case of Covid-19. Another aspect that Wade points out in his paper is the fact that though the Chinese were doing research on the coronavirus, there were very low security measures in place to contain its spread should the virus escape and the fact that three scientists in the WIV lab who got coronavirus- like symptoms in December 2019 itself points in this direction.
Secondly, it is an established fact that there are close relations between WIV and the Peoples’ Liberation Army. Clubbing this bonhomie with the idea that the Chinese have been discussing development of biological weapons for almost a decade is a worrisome proposition. The State Department’s report is crucial, because it is one of those rare moments when intelligence reports have been made public. However, there are rising noises about Chinese culpability especially since it did nothing to contain the virus when it spread in China in the early stages, and allowed a substantial number of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic Covid-19 affected overseas Chinese to return to their places, hence spreading the virus the world over.
WHO investigations into the origin of Covid-19 point towards the wet markets. It argues that there were early cases of Covid-19 in the wet markets where exotic animals are sold and were responsible for the outbreak. However, the recent reports, especially that of Nicholas Wade, argue that the genetic mark-up of Covid-19 is complex and, in all probability, contains elements from various species including bats but not limited to it. Along with this, there is the fact that Covid-19 suddenly spread in one month (December 2019) like a bushfire.
For an animal virus to so rapidly infect the human body within this time-frame is highly unlikely, unless there were test cases on humanized tissue or humanized lab-rats, because the intermediate link between the virus and human system is a necessary precondition for the spread of the virus itself. In this sense, there are suspicions raised on the efficacy of the WHO report. The looming clouds of controversy on the origins of Covid-19 and China’s role in it should provide an apt background for Beijing’s overreach in the South Asian region.
In April, President Xi Jinping had called on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to express concerns and offer help against the raging second wave of Covid-19. At the same time, Chinese media was publishing reports deriding India for not containing the virus, congratulating themselves for their better management and the recovery of their economy. Simultaneously, the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, was busy holding meetings with his counterparts of six South Asian countries barring India, though he said that India was welcome as well.
In these meetings the aim of the Chinese minister was to forge a ‘Himalayan Quad’, apparently in reaction to the QUAD grouping comprising India, the USA, Australia and Japan. His offer to South Asian countries to fight Covid-19 with Chinese help, in the light of India fighting a ferocious battle was opportunistic. The Chinese argument has been that India is busy fighting the Covid-19 demon, and has no time to help her South Asian neighbours. Thus, in place of India, China should be relied upon.
However, the Chinese have carefully brushed aside any suggestion that Covid-19 originated in China and the plight of the world today is due to their negligence. In comparison, India rose to her feet again within a month’s time with a massive vaccination drive and preparation on a war-footing to take care of her sick. It is also heartening that in the hour of need, many countries have come to extend their help to India, in President Biden’s words ‘to repay India’s kindness’.
No doubt, India was blindsided by the Covid-19 virus, but in true Indian fashion, we have fought a heroic battle. Within the context of diplomacy in the South Asian region, it is another grim reminder as to why cooperation between India and her neighbours is of paramount importance as our destinies are intertwined not only by our proximity, but also by the calamities that we face.
(The writer is Research Scholar, Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University)