The decision to appoint the National Security Adviser, Ajit Kumar Doval, as the chairman of the Strategic Policy Group (SPG) of the beleaguered and unwieldy National Security Council (NSC) has surprised many strategists. Earlier, Mr Doval was appointed as chairman of the Defence Planning Committee (DPC), which virtually runs the Ministry of Defence. It has three Service Chiefs, Defence Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Secretary of Expenditure as members. It is an institutional entity that will consider a draft national security strategy and will also formulate an international defence engagement strategy.
The new strategic think-tank will also oversee foreign acquisitions and sales, making defence preparedness much more than an acquisition-centric exercise. This job is best suited for the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) ~ when appointed ~ to provide single-point military advice to the National Security Council (NSC) as National Security Advisor (External Security).
The members of the SPG are directors of intelligence agencies, heads of the three defence services (army, navy and air force), the Cabinet Secretary and Governor, Reserve Bank of India.
The Centre has now strengthened the NSC secretariat. Apart from advising the government on security issues, it will now coordinate with the ministries concerned to implement the action plans on the ground, including development of infrastructure, which is also a key to the security of the nation. Emphasis has been given on keeping a close watch on developments in neighbouring countries, which is vital for India’s internal security. of the country. The office of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) has been abolished and it will now function as part of the NSC.
While the Prime Minister heads the NSC, the ministers in charge of Home, Defence, External Affairs and Finance are members of the Council. The National Security Adviser heads the NSC Secretariat (NSCS) and now has three Deputy NSAs to look into three different aspects of overall national security. The former Indian Foreign Service officer Pankaj Saran has taken over as Deputy NSA (External Affairs). He will also take care of the External Affairs wing of NSC. Former JIC chief RN Ravi has taken over as the Deputy NSA (Internal Security) and apart from monitoring the situation inside the country, he will also be responsible for monitoring the situation in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, as any development in these countries can have a direct impact on the overall situation in India. Former RAW secretary R Khanna has taken over as the Deputy NSA (Technology), and will extend all help to the other two Deputy NSAs. Surprisingly, there is no defence officer as Deputy NSA for Defence and external national security matters, which is a must for formulating professional strategies. From now on, the NSA secretariat will not only give recommendations to the National Security Council, but will also coordinate with the ministries concerned and the State governments to ensure that the plans are properly implemented on the ground.
Being the head of the two very important organisations ~ DPC and SPG ~ besides his own post as NSA, Mr Doval has too much on his plate to devote time to issues of reform and restructuring that are needed in the area of defence and national security. He is also responsible for managing India’s policies towards Pakistan, China and the US. He manages the country’s nuclear deterrent and, because of his background, supervises the intelligence agencies. Though he has three highly capable deputies to assist him in carrying out his wide-ranging tasks, it is humanly not possible to handle the most important defence matters unless a professional CDS is appointed in MoD to provide valid single-point military advice to the Prime Minister.
There are a number of issues that need to be debated for the smooth functioning of this new NSC. First, the Cabinet Secretary was previousl;y the designated chair of the SPG and now the NSA, suggesting that this gives Doval primacy over the entire government because key officials like the Governor, Reserve Bank of India and the Cabinet Secretary are also members of the SPG. Incidentally, the RBI Governor and Cabinet Secretary have constitutional positions which the NSA does not. How can this arrangement fit in?
Second, the most important aspect is the authority for passing national security decisions from the Cabinet Secretariat to the NSCS. Technically, the status quo will be maintained as the decisions of the SPG will still be executed by the Cabinet Secretary, but the authority won’t be his, or the cabinet’s. How can this arrangement work?
Third, the authority of the home, defence, external affairs and finance ministers will get diluted as their officers and the Service chiefs, effectively, come back and convey the decisions to them while the Cabinet Secretary ensures that these are followed.
Fourth, the Cabinet Committee on Security will have very little to discuss because CCS members have already taken decisions at the SPG meeting under NSA. The collective responsibility of the cabinet system of governance will then get neutralised. A debate, difference of opinion, which is the hallmark of the CCS will have very little space left for its members. The other ‘Big-4’ (home, defence, finance and external affairs ministers) will only become a rubber stamp.
Fifth, strategic think-tanks and experts hold that military operations in the coming years would be short and intense, and that the aggressor could gain an initial advantage. There is also the distinct possibility of India conducting war on two fronts, due to the nexus between our adversaries. In these circumstances, the speed and strength of our military response in defence or strike would be vital. This will depend on appropriate deployment, coordination and proportionate launch of our army, navy, air force, missiles, drones and cyber forces in the theatres under attack or threat. India’s military response therefore will have to be in the form of joint military operations of our three Defence Services (army, navy and air force). Further, credible capability of such joint endeavours would serve as a deterrent to neighbours from undertaking any military adventures.
Effective joint operations necessitate unified military command by a military officer superior in rank to the three Service chiefs, designated as, say, CDS. The CDS will also serve to render valid single-point military advice to the NSC as National Security Advisor (External Security), and the existing NSA would be NSA (Internal Security). At present, in the absence of a CDS, the Chairman and members of NSC cannot receive single-point advice on military and external security matters, which is so necessary for rapid and valid decisions at the national level, especially for short and intense armed conflicts.
Under a strong Prime Minister, decisions often go top-bottom instead of the bottom-up approach. We saw this under Indira Gandhi, leading to a famous victory in the 1971 war with Pakistan and the emergence of Bangladesh. But this formal centralisation of authority, now with the Prime Minister, marginalisation of traditional structures, and the destruction of checks and balances seem to be erratic.
The writer is former Senior Professor, International Trade. He may be reached at vasu022@gmail.com