“Breaking news” has seldom been more distressing than the coverage from Glasgow which makes it explicit that the draft agreement has been choreographed with what is described as “alarm and concern”. Chiefly the draft has conveyed a mere signal of intent.
While it mentions the need to cut emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 ~ from the 2010 level ~ and achieve “net zero” by mid-century, the draft acknowledges “with regret” that rich nations have failed to live up to their pledge of providing $100 billion a year to help poor nations that are “dead with global warming”.
The prologue to the disconcerting signal was provided a day earlier when the president of the UN climate talks told the gathering at the high table that there was “still a mountain to climb” towards a goal of capping the global temperature at 1.5 degree Celsius.
“We have made progress at COP26, but we still have a mountain to climb over the next few days”. Clarifying its position on that “mountain”, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) research group has said that all national pledges submitted so far to cut greenhouse gases by 2030 would allow the Earth’s temperature to rise by 2.4 degrees C from pre-industrial levels by 2100.
If the contention of scientists is any indication, the “aspirational goal” set down in the 2015 Paris agreement is the maximum the Earth can afford to avoid a catastrophic rise in heat waves, droughts, storms, floods and crop failures.
Nature, it would seem, is fighting a losing battle against the aberrations of the environment. To achieve this goal, the UN wants to achieve what it calls “net zero”, a situation in which no more greenhouse gases are either emitted or are simultaneously absorbed by 2050. It is essential, therefore, that emissions are reduced by 45 per cent by 2030.
Truth to tell, there isn’t much time if the deadline is treated as the benchmark. These emissions can take the form of carbon dioxide, burning of coal, oil and gas. The Climate Action Tracker has warned that despite the Glasgow pledges of 2030, the world will emit twice as much in 2030 as required for 1.5 degree Celsius.
It is doubtful if “longer term net zero” pledges will be met since most countries have not yet implemented the short-term policies or the legislation that is required to do so. It is all very well for certain nations to articulate that they have a net zero target, but they have no plans on how to get there.
“Their 2030 target is as low as many of them are,” is the high-minded lament of Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, one of the entities behind CAT. A critical feature of climate action is carbon pricing and trading. These are mechanisms that force polluters to pay a price for their emissions.
The caveat applies as much to the developed and the developing world. They have both barely reached Base Camp.