Mexico’s cultural philosopher Jose Vasconcelos in his widely-read 1925 essay, “The Cosmic Race,” celebrated the mixture of European, Asian, Indigenous, and African races that made up the Mexican. He foresaw the advent of what he called the Aesthetic Era, in which joy, love, fantasy, and creativity would rule and create a new “cosmic race”. Vasconcelos sought to celebrate “mestisaje” (racial or cultural mixing) as the moral and material basis for the people of all races into a universal race. Mexico elected Benito Juarez as the first indigenous person as president in 1857.
He remained president for 14 years. His presidency was most transformational. It is this tapestry of cultures, colours and faiths that has produced Dr Claudia Sheinbaum, the first woman and the first Jewish person, to be elected president. She has played down her Jewish ancestry telling The New York Times that “I know where I come from, but my parents were atheists.” And yet, she was attacked viciously by former president Vicente Fox who called her a “Bulgarian Jew”. Some even questioned if she was a Mexican at all. The election of Dr Sheinbaum is a watershed moment for Mexico. Her victory was of course highly anticipated despite the spirited campaign of the combined opposition’s equally dynamic woman candidate Xochitl Galvez. Mexico has joined the growing list of countries in Latin America to have elected women presidents ~ Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Dr Sheinbaum’s intellectual credentials are formidable.
A Ph D in energy engineering, she was part of the UN panel of climate scientists that received the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. She has done her scientific research and written books and papers on energy efficiency, sustainability and environment. Mexico, long steeped in machismo and still witnessing high levels of violence against women, has emerged in recent years as a leader in gender parity. Argentina, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Nicaragua now elect an average of 46 per cent of women to their lower houses of parliament. Through a constitutional change in 2019, Mexico now mandates parity for the executive, judiciary and state organs. Mexico has gone a step ahead by incorporating “parity in everything” into its constitution.
This paradigm shift is the result of what President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (referred to as President AMLO) calls the “Fourth Transformation”, the independence of Mexico in 1810 being the first, separation of state and church in 1858 being the second and the 1910 Mexican Revolution being the third such transformation. Dr Sheinbaum’s impressive victory is the result of the “Fourth Transformation”. During her election campaign, “La Doctora” as she is often referred to, promised to build the “second floor” of the “Fourth Transformation.” It implies a commitment to continue President AMLO’s major “strategic investments” in the infrastructure sector like highways, railways, industrial corridors, ports and airports.
The new president will continue to pursue a welfare state model through a mixed economy combining aspects of socialism, Keynesianism and the free market. Both President AMLO and Dr Sheinbaum served as mayors of Mexico City. As Mayor, “La Doctora” established good credentials by opening two public universities and a cable car system known as Cablebus in the Iztapalapa borough. Her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic got her nominated for the World Mayor Prize in 2021. As a protégé of the combative current president, Dr Sheinbaum has promised to continue his progressive policies. But she may not follow his populist push with a similar zeal. She is expected to blaze her own path. Mexico has a tradition of new presidents of the same party charting their own course and going against their political mentors. President AMLO is still very popular commanding an approval rating of over 60 per cent. His popular unconditional cash transfers to low-income households have kept his popularity intact.
President Sheinbaum will need to raise taxes and perhaps decrease spending on populist programmes to pay the mounting governmental debt. Unlike AMLO, Dr Sheinbaum is “not a populist.” She told the New York Times earlier that she and AMLO are “different people” with different priorities. AMLO has long preferred a “popular democracy” to a liberal one. Those who have known her from close quarters told me that she being much more of a mainstream leftist politician will be “less ideological” than her mentor. The president-elect who assumes office on October 1 will find it difficult to continue with AMLO’s controversial push to undermine the judiciary and the election commission. Even as Mayor, she diverged from AMLO’s approach to security, energy transition and handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Unlike AMLO, who embraced the failed policy of militarization, Dr Sheinbaum focused on strengthening Mexico City’s civilian police force through growth, modernization and professionalization. Like the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled Mexico for several decades, AMLO’s Morena party has nearly become a hegemonic party. It has won most gubernatorial posts and a majority in parliament. That has emboldened AMLO to push for his controversial reforms even after the new president is awaiting to take charge. Dr Sheinbaum can’t afford to continue AMLO’s push to have the judges and election commission members elected. AMLO has given Mexico’s military a greater role not only in anti-drug campaigns but in other areas of government. Today, the National Guard is deployed everywhere including the petrol pumps and supermarkets. It remains to be seen how the new president handles the endemic drug violence.
As a great crowd puller, AMLO filled Mexico City’s central square, the Zócalo, to celebrate him and his government’s performance. But when he sought to undermine the Supreme Court’s powers and that of other democratic institutions, his critics filled Zócalo, marching to defend Mexico’s national institutions. Mexico has seen the rise of strong social movements representing the indigenous peoples, migrants, women, the environment, and victims of violence. AMLO often disparaged them. Dr Sheinbaum will invent her own style. The substance of her presidency too could be different. In all likelihood, “La Doctora’ will set aside her mentor’s push for broad constitutional reforms, including overhauls of pensions, the judiciary, electoral law and environmental regulations. She doesn’t fire up audiences the way AMLO does. How she handles the migrants on Mexican soil by hugs or bullets and how she pushes her green agenda will define both her presidency and legacy
(The writer is director, Institute of Social Sciences, Delhi)