Well-known columnist Farid Zakaria observed in an article published in Newsweek some time back that the 21st century belongs to China. From a third world nation, China has now risen as the second most important country on the planet. In 1990, China was just like any third world country with a per capita income of less than three dollars a day. After the crackdown in Tiananmen Square, China had to put on hold its economic policies and programmes. There were loud criticisms from western countries of suppression of human rights in China. But Chinese leader Deng Xiao Ping boldly decided to continue with economic reforms and not to freeze them. He made the famous observation that “one does not stop eating for fear of choking”. The rest is history. During the next three decades, China’s growth was ten per cent a year and it emerged as the second largest economy in the world. It carried on industrialisation at breakneck speed and achieved in the course of one generation “what it took Europe three hundred years to achieve.” Zakaria notes that this rapid and almost miraculous transformation was achieved with remarkable lack of violence. It is said dismissively by some critics that this had been possible because of the totalitarian regime in China. But so were many countries of the West when they were industrialised. The spectacular economic growth has released tremendous energy which has been diffused all over the country. The boom thus has many legs. China has succeeded in pulling nearly 450 million people out of poverty. This perhaps is the greatest poverty reduction programme in human history. There is justifiable national pride at the country’s rapid economic development and modernisation. There is also anger against the West, and particularly the United States, for its containment strategy against China. The Chinese Communist Party projects itself as the defender of the country’s honour and presents the west as “an evil force”. Riding high on nationalism, China is very critical of the West but is pragmatic enough to avoid any serious confrontation with it. America and the West are the main export market of China and the main providers of science and technology. The USA and the European Union account for 50 per cent of Chinese exports. But, bashing of the West will continue as it enables Chinese leaders to distract popular attention from pressing domestic issues. Aggressive nationalism in turn is leading to growing authoritarianism in China. President Xi Jing Ping is now vested with untrammelled power and authority. He is the president, party chief and the head of the armed forces. There is erosion of leadership among the equals which Deng had created to prevent authoritarianism of one person. However, China’s growth is now slowing down to 5 per cent and recent studies show that there will be substantial growth slowdown due to demographic decline, limits of capital intensive growth and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. It may slow down to 3 per cent by 2030. Even with this growth rate, China would become the world’s largest economy but would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the United States. In the 20th party Congress, Xi got an unprecedented third five-year term as the party president and tightened his grip over the party and the army. He also filled up the Politburo standing committee with hardcore loyalists. He also asserted that China will not hesitate to use force and other powers necessary for reunification of Taiwan. Under him the CPC has become a one leader party and he is now endeavouring to make China a one leader country. He plans and promises to restore by mid-century the lost glory and status of the Middle Kingdom. Under Xi, China is aggressively converting herself into a hyper nationalist state determined to win back its lost exalted status. It is trying to browbeat its neighbours to submission in the South China Sea. It is projecting aggressively its extensive maritime claims by militarising islands. And the county is setting up a high tech surveillance structure, including a social credit system to control social behaviour of the citizens. This is creating a huge challenge for the international order and hastening a Cold War like situation. For decades America has bought more goods from China than it has sold to the country. This has led to mounting American debt and China’s staggering trade surplus of $370 billion. If China offloads a substantial portion of its dollar reserves, it can bring the currency crashing down with devastating consequences for the United States. Today, China is asserting itself because of the economic strength it has acquired, This was done slowly and imperceptibly over a long period of time and America did not grasp it. It thought that it was living in an unchanging world. But the world around it did change. A global power has to develop economic muscle and not just talk tough. But China is also facing serious problems. Besides the problem of massive corruption, China has the problem of an eroding workforce. George Shambaugh, a wellknown China expert and a professor in Georgetown university has argued that China is in a state of decline and this will continue if no major political reforms take place in the near future. XI’s ruthless measures will bring the country to the breaking point. But these reforms are not going to take place because the communist regime in China is unsure and can only think in terms of control and coercion. Thus China is in no position to challenge the global hegemony of the United States. There are scholars who believe that America and China are on a collision course and this is against the background of the escalating tariff war between the two countries. President Trump imposed heavy import duties on a large number of Chinese goods imported to the United States. There is a bipartisan consensus in the United States to take a tough stand against China. The previous American view that engagement with China and helping its peaceful rise will not affect American interests is undergoing a change. There is a growing feeling that America neèds to balance its trade relationship with Beijing before China gets too big to compromise. The earlier policy of accommodation is yielding to demonisation of China. And here lies the danger. The tariff war between America and China is turning into a zero-sum game with adverse impacts on the world economy. Some well-considered steps to keep China in check are called for but demonisation of China and getting into a Cold War with it will be a serious mistake. This will hurt both America and China. There are others scholars and academics holding a different point of view. Michael Barkley in an article in Foreign Affairs on 21 November 2018 said that China militarily or strategically will not be able to overtake the United States in the foreseeable future. According to Barkley, China and USA are not caught in a Thucydides trap because China is in no position to challenge the global hegemony of the United States.
The writer is Senior Fellow Institute of Social Sciences, a former Director General of the National Human Rights Commission and former Director, National Police Academy