The resumption of India’s population census, expected to begin in September, marks a pivotal moment for the nation. Delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic, this once-a-decade exercise was initially due for completion in 2021. As the country grapples with the consequences of this delay, it becomes increasingly evident that the absence of up-to-date demographic data has far-reaching implications, not only for policy formulation but also for the credibility of economic indicators.
India’s census is more than a mere headcount; it is the foundation upon which numerous policies and programmes are built. From welfare schemes to infrastructure planning, census data influences decisions that affect millions of lives. The last census, conducted in 2011, now feels like a relic of a different era. Since then, the country has experienced significant changes, not least of which is the transition to becoming the world’s most populous nation. Relying on outdated data has hampered the government’s ability to respond effectively to the evolving needs of its citizens. The delay in conducting the census has exposed vulnerabilities in India’s statistical architecture.
Economists and policymakers have long warned that the lack of recent demographic data undermines the accuracy of other critical surveys, such as those related to employment, poverty, and inflation. For a country of India’s scale, where economic trends can shift rapidly, this data gap presents a serious challenge. Government schemes that are supposed to be data-driven risk being misaligned with current realities, potentially leaving the most vulnerable segments of the population underserved. Moreover, the delay in the census has broader implications for India’s economic data. As consumption patterns shift and new economic trends emerge, the need for accurate data becomes even more pressing.
The government’s efforts to reweight categories like food in retail inflation calculations are necessary, but these adjustments can only be fully effective if they are based on a current and comprehensive understanding of the population. Without accurate data, these recalibrations run the risk of being out of sync with the ground reality. The restart of the census, expected to take around 18 months to complete, is a welcome development. However, it also serves as a reminder of the importance of timely and reliable data collection. The government has set a target of releasing the census results by March 2026, covering a 15- year period. While this timeline may seem adequate, the delay has already underscored the need for more robust data mechanisms that can withstand unforeseen disruptions.
As India embarks on this massive data-gathering exercise, it is crucial to recognise that the census is not merely a statistical activity; it is a cornerstone of governance. Accurate data is essential for addressing the country’s most pressing challenges, from urbanisation and infrastructure development to social welfare and economic planning. The lessons from the delay should prompt a rethinking of how India approaches data collection and utilisation, ensuring that such disruptions do not leave the country in a data void again.