After protracted negotiations involving the US and France, Israel and Hezbollah have accepted a ceasefire. The ceasefire comes after over a year of fighting resulting in the loss of thousands of lives, mostly innocents. Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron said in a joint statement that the agreement “will cease the fighting in Lebanon, and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations operating from Lebanon,” adding that it “will create conditions to restore lasting calm and allow residents in both countries to return safely to their homes.”
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli PM, said, “We will enforce the agreement and respond forcefully to any violation.” According to the agreement there would initially be a sixtyday ceasefire. The world welcomed the agreement as it ended one part of the conflict in West Asia. The conflict in Lebanon has thus far displaced over 1.2 million Lebanese as also 60,000 Israelis. According to Lebanon there have been over 3,700 deaths, while Israel has accepted the loss of 75 soldiers and 45 civilians. UNSC resolution 1701 which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict was the basis for the current agreement. Similar to 2006, only Lebanese armed forces and UN peacekeepers would operate south of Lebanon’s Litani River. This will imply that Hezbollah forces would retreat about 40 km from the border while Israeli forces would vacate Lebanon.
Over the years, the 2006 truce was breached by both sides, with Hezbollah constructing underground structures and Israeli aircraft overflying Lebanon regularly. Yet the truce held, till Hamas launched its raids on Israel on 7 October last year. It should be noted that both the ceasefires (2006 and current) are between Israel and Hezbollah, not Lebanon, implying that the world has accepted Hezbollah as a global entity, despite it being designated as a terrorist group. The current ceasefire is a win-win for all sides involved in the conflict and hence there is hope that it will hold.
For Biden, this is some achievement, though in the final stages of his presidency. Had this ceasefire been announced prior to the US elections, it is possible that it could have benefitted Kamala Harris. The US was being stretched to its limits, providing Israel and Ukraine with weapons and ammunition while also maintaining its own reserves for any future operations. Its defence-industrial complex was unable to meet rising demands. Netanyahu officially announced three reasons for accepting the ceasefire. Firstly, it enables Israel to focus on Iran, its major adversary; secondly, the ceasefire comes as a ‘breather’ as it also allows Israeli forces to ‘replenish their stocks’ and finally separates Hamas and Hezbollah operations. But there are multiple other reasons. Israeli defence forces are exhausted. There are reports of reservists not reporting for duty. A CNN report mentions that Israeli forces “issued 1,126 arrest warrants for ultra-Orthodox conscripts who have not responded to drafting orders.”
The Israel Supreme Court had determined that ultraOrthodox Jews cannot be exempt from military service. An Israeli military spokesperson mentioned while commenting on drafting orders to ultra-Orthodox Jews, “The IDF (Israeli Defence Force) is in need of soldiers. We touched on the figure of 10,000, but this isn’t a stable figure because we have casualties unfortunately.” The ceasefire with Hezbollah will reduce demands for recruitment. Further, there are disagreements within the Israeli government on its conduct of the conflict as also the end state desired by Netanyahu.
Israel has never been able to make Hezbollah redundant. In 2006, prior to the ceasefire, both sides had suffered casualties, hence they welcomed the ceasefire. It enabled them to live to fight another day. Israel learnt its lessons and attempted to implement them in this campaign. Hezbollah had also brought about changes and despite suffering a series of setbacks, managed to force another ceasefire. In the present war, Israel eliminated members of Hezbollah’s senior leadership by target bombing and its unique ‘pager bombs’ took out middle level leaders. Simultaneously, its air force bombed Hezbollah’s rocket storage depots as also production facilities.
However, these did little to stop the launch of rockets. Hezbollah had also learnt from 2006. In fact, days before the ceasefire, it fired a barrage of over 250 rockets into Israel. Incursions into Lebanon have never been very successful for Israeli forces, either in 2006 or even now. Despite heavy casualties, the Hezbollah have always bounced back. Casualties for Israel are difficult to replace, especially when it continues to battle Hamas in Gaza. Lebanese civilian casualties in targeted airstrikes only benefit Hezbollah as terrorist groups gain supporters with innocent deaths. Simultaneously, it impacts Israel’s global standing. Israel can now concentrate on Hamas, anti-Israel groups in Syria as also in Yemen.
Israel is aware that the truce would enable Hezbollah to rebuild its structure as also its military power. It would ultimately have to engage with it sometime in the future. That may not be immediate, but will have to happen. It is a matter of time but has brought relief to citizens in both countries. For Iran, the main backer of Hamas and Hezbollah, it is essential that at least one of its proxies remains secure for the future. It has no choice but to sacrifice Hamas while saving Hezbollah. For Iran, Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah are buffers between it and Israel, its sworn enemy. It cannot let all of them be destroyed. Simultaneously, Iran has opened negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), hoping to obtain sanction relief.
This ceasefire would benefit it alongside its rapprochement with its neighbours. Hence, it gave its sanction for the ceasefire to the Hezbollah chief, Naim Qaseem. Hezbollah also needs to recoup. Its enmity with Israel continues. For it the ceasefire is a pause as it rebuilds its capabilities, manpower, structures and stockpiles of munitions. While it has suffered casualties, it is aware that it has not lost the war, maybe the battle, and is preparing for the next phase. In the ultimate analysis, both Israel and Hezbollah know that this is not a permanent peace agreement. How long it would continue is anybody’s guess. Currently, forces on both sides as also the population are weary of war. It is this weariness which may compel both sides to maintain peace at least for the near term.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)