The ruling BJP is reassessing its poll strategy before the 2024 elections. As the Opposition parties try to build a united platform against the BJP for the next Lok Sabha elections, it has become necessary to begin negotiations with its erstwhile allies and find new partners.
After the loss in Karnataka last month, the BJP is in power in ten states and shares power in four states. The NDA had 19 allies in 2019. But the situation in 2024 looks different. Apart from the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), Rashtriya Lok Jan Shakti Party (Pashupati Paras faction), Apna Dal (Soney Lal faction) and AIADMK, no major party is part of the NDA that completed 25 years of its existence on 15 May.
The BJP leadership has already commenced alliance talks with the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. It has also reaffirmed its ties with the ruling Shiv Sena faction in Maharashtra and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. Firstly, the Party must still recover from losing Karnataka in the recent Assembly polls.
The BJP thought a hung Assembly would emerge, but the Congress won a landslide victory. Therefore, strengthening the Karnataka unit is crucial. Secondly, the impact of these results has energised the Congress and other Opposition parties, which are trying to unite. The BJP would naturally prefer a weak Congress and a divided Opposition.
Thirdly, the BJP had reached the maximum it could win on its own in the 2019 elections. Creditably, it scored 100 per cent of seats in states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP and UP. The Party may lose some seats in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Chhattisgarh.
To compensate, it must increase the number of seats in the south to cover up the likely losses. But it is challenging to penetrate the south. Significantly, the party has weakened in Bihar (40 seats) after breaking up with Janata Dal (United) and Maharashtra (48 seats) after a breakup with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. With these losses, and the possibility of a united opposition, the BJP has a fight on its hand.
Hence the need for an alliance. What better way than to assuage the departed allies’ feelings and lure them back? BJP had four important partners since 2014. They were Akali Dal, Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam and JD(U). Except the last named, the others may return. Telugu Desam chief Chandra Babu Naidu recently met Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President J.P. Nadda and held talks for re-entry.
He was encouraged when Prime Minister Modi paid homage to TDP founder N T Rama Rao on his birth centenary in his Mann ki Baat address last month. If things work out, the two may become partners in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The BJP will have a tough choice, as the current chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy also has good relations with the BJP.
As for the Akali Dal, the Prime Minister recently went to Chandigarh to pay homage to Akali Dal patriarch Prakash Singh Badal, who passed away at 95. The two parties parted ways in 2021 when SAD opposed the three farming laws which it considered anti-farmer. Although the laws were withdrawn, the SAD and BJP fought the elections separately. Nitish Kumar broke the alliance in Bihar last year. He became the chief minister again with the help of the RJD.
Bihar is a critical state, and the BJP is hoping for defections from JD(U). Nitish has been busy mobilising the Opposition with Prime Ministerial ambitions. But the JD(S) may return after its miserable performance in the recent elections winning just 19 seats. Its founder and former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda might be ready for a short-term alliance in Karnataka.
The BJP rides piggyback on the AIADMK after the death of its leader J.Jayalalishtaa in 2016. At a time when the BJP would like to strengthen its relationship with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, there are strains. In an interview this week, the BJP state president K Annamalai made unsavoury comments about Jayalalithaa. The enraged AIADMK threatens to leave the coalition.
Overall, the BJP must hold on to its allies in Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar, the northeastern states and the South to retrieve the situation. It must also keep channels open with parties equidistant from BJP and the Congress, such as the Biju Janata Dal and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh. There is also a possibility of defections before the polls. It might work if the BJP manages to keep a divided Opposition, an expanded NDA, and a new narrative.
The BJP’s target is to get 350 seats. While the Modi magic might still work, the party needs a Modi plus. The BJP, which is actively involved in expanding the NDA, understands the importance of this aspect. After all, 2024 will not be the same as 2014 or 2019. But, it would like to perform a hat trick with or without new allies.