The USA is back in the throes of West Asian geopolitics and its bloody wars. The immediate provocation for its pivot back from the IndoPacific to this troubled region was provided by terror group Hamas’ 7 October barbarism in southern Israel.
So, what does President Joe Biden do now? Experts agree that the USA, still the world most powerful country with strategic interests across the globe, has to begin crafting a West Asia policy anew. Three aspects will have to be factored in by the Biden administration ~ the immediate response, the criticality of designing a policy which also deals with the larger challenges posed by the Gaza War, and Washington’s ability to weave this policy response into its wider West Asia policy.
President Biden was quick off the block to stand by Israel in the face of the surprise attack by Hamas and its atrocities; he followed up two powerful, emotive speeches of support with substantive US military measures including ordering two aircraft carrier groups to the region, sending supplies, and announcing a large financial aid package. Washington also warned Iran and its proxy Hezbollah not to attempt to fish in troubled waters, an important stand in the initial days after the attack when Israel Defence Forces were recovering from the initial shock. Mr Biden and his secretaries of state and defence flew to Tel Aviv to express their solidarity. So far, so good. But in dealing with the aftermath of the Gaza War subsequently launched by Israel, the USA also has to consider the ramifications for its other allies in the region.
Egypt and Jordan, for example, face instability as popular sentiment ~ or the mood in the so-called Arab street ~ has solidified in favour of the long-suffering Palestinians living under occupation. Washington is also coming in for criticism from its Arab and European partners for its ‘blank cheque’ to Israel. The support of these allies will be needed by the USA to ensure that Iran’s attempts to activate at least five proxies (Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Syrian regime) against Israel do not end up undermining the role of America and its Arab allies in the region.
The issue of Tehran’s nuclear programme is also in the mix so a calibrated US policy is of the essence. Assuming Israel will administer a very substantial if not fatal blow on Hamas as a military organisation and government, which seems likely, decisions will also have to be made about Gaza’s future. Tel Aviv has made it clear it does not want to remain in the Gaza Strip indefinitely and have to control/administer another two million Palestinians. Looking at the scenarios, the US will realistically have to reach out to the Palestinian Authority (PA) ~ that controls the West Bank and was brutally expelled by Hamas from Gaza in 2007 ~ to take over.
But for that, massive capacity building will be required for the PA and steps would have to be taken to redeem its image as a corrupt, ineffective, and ‘collaborator’ regime. Washington has its task cut out.