Thailand may be heading for troubled times. With the country’s establishment, made up of the military and supporters of the monarchy determined to place hurdles in the path of those elected in the country’s general election a few weeks ago, the battle for control of the future may return to the streets as early as next month when the election commission ratifies the results of the poll held in May. The Move Forward party led by Pita Limjaroenrat won the most seats, followed closely by the Pheu Thai party of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. These two parties have joined hands with six others to stake claim to governance, but a preliminary finding announced this week by election officers suggests Mr. Pita may be disqualified.
The commission’s head announced “there is sufficient information and evidence to warrant further investigation into whether Mr. Pita is qualified to run in the election”, an ominous pronouncement since it also suggests that the front-runner for the Prime Minister’s job may be looking at up to 10 years in jail. The investigation relates to Mr. Pita’s holding of shares in a defunct television company, which is barred by Thai election law. The television company ceased operations in 2007, which ought to have made ownership of the shares a moot question, but precedent suggests that trouble may be brewing, not the least because his party’s campaign promise to amend lese majeste laws has caused consternation in the establishment’s ranks.
As it is, constitutional provisions make Mr. Pita’s task difficult. While parties making up the alliance have more than 300 seats in Thailand’s 500-member lower house, this is not enough to elect a Prime Minister. The 250 senators appointed by the military also vote, which means that more than 375 votes are needed to win. Already, many senators have announced they will not support Mr. Pita’s candidature. If Mr. Pita gets disqualified, or if the alliance is not allowed to form the government, it will mean a clear repudiation of the people’s will, for they had voted overwhelmingly against parties aligned with the military. While not all parties forming part of the alliance led by Mr. Pita share Move Forward’s disdain for lese majeste laws, all of them are determined to bring about constitutional changes that will significantly reduce the grip the military has on civilian politics.
They have also promised to legalise same-sex marriages and to take steps to dismantle the monopolies and oligopolies that dominate Thai business. Should they be thwarted, it is more than likely that the people will take to the streets, to press for a return to a functioning democracy, something they have been fighting for ever since the military seized power in a coup in 2014 and then sought to legitimise. The Thai people have waited a long time, and their patience may be running thin.