Donald Trump and his Vice President JD Vance together targeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky in full media glare is a spectacle not witnessed in years. Terming him as disrespectful, demanding he accept terms of the ceasefire determined by Trump, and finally asking him to leave the White House displays neither diplomacy nor respect for a guest. It was a visit no one would have imagined. The mineral deal, announced by both sides prior to the meeting, was unsigned. Rarely has the Vice President participated in discussions when a presidential bilateral is in progress. The manner in which Vance joined Trump to berate Zelenskky appears to indicate that anger was simmering.
Neither side displayed maturity. A visit which commenced with hope, despite differences between the two, ended in disaster. The most defining moment was of Oksana Markarova, the Ukrainian ambassador to Washington, sitting with her head in her hands as arguments escalated. She realized that nothing could be worse. Logically, the press should have been told to leave as soon as the debate degenerated; however, it did not happen. Such a diplomatic spectacle has never been witnessed before. Subsequently Trump and Vance took to social media to defend their stance, shifting blame on Zelenskky.
On the other hand, Zelenskky went live on Fox News, stood his ground and refused to apologise for his conduct. Zelenskky insisted the American reading of Putin was wrong and its approach to resolution of the conflict was flawed. His thought process, based on three years of conflict, was bound to be biased, which Trump repeatedly attempted to raise. Zelenskky insisted that unless there were US troops deployed in Ukraine, the nation was at risk. Zelenskky, by believing that Putin can threaten the West and even the US, in case terms of the ceasefire are in his favour, is possibly biased. The US is capable of determining its own threats and needs no Zelenskky.
Ukraine neither has military power to regain lost territory nor can continue the war without support, largely from the US. Zelenskky should have been more pragmatic, especially when he needs backing. European leaders, who have been facing a pushy Trump in recent days, rallied behind Zelenskky. Though none blamed Trump directly, they praised Zelenskky for standing up to Trump. Europe’s backing highlighted the Atlantic divide. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, on a visit to India, tweeted, ‘Your dignity honours the bravery of the Ukrainian people.’ The British Premier expressed ‘unwavering support for Ukraine.’ Every message of support was responded to by Zelensky. On the contrary, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, backed Trump when he mentioned, ‘Strong men make peace, weak men make war.’
The former Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, said, ‘For the first time, Trump told the truth.’ Within the US, Democratic Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, posted, ‘Trump and Vance are doing Putin’s dirty work.’ While Zelenskky may have gained brownie points in his country for standing up to US bullying, he is bound to face reduced support from the US. Europe alone would not be able to provide resources needed by Ukraine to continue the conflict. They can neither push a ceasefire nor deploy forces to back Ukraine.
Neither has Ukraine the manpower to continue recouping its increasing losses. Zelenskky cannot approach the US again except by surrendering to Trump’s demands as also apologizing, an act he would hesitate to accept. This may lead to a change in leadership in Ukraine. US-Ukraine relations are currently at their lowest ebb. Europe, despite all its bluster, can voice support and watch from the sidelines. Despite three years of funding Ukraine, European defence industries have never been geared for wartime production.
Most procurements are from US manufacturers. This will now be at risk. Any European leader who attempts to broker peace between Zelenskky and Trump is unlikely to succeed unless Zelenskky massages Trump’s bruised ego. Verbal support from Europe, without accusing the US, indicates little, apart from acknowledging the fact that Zelenskky stood up to Trump, something their leaders failed to do. However, Europe has not refrained from funding Putin’s war efforts by procuring Russian oil, while banking on the US to fund Ukraine. US support for Ukraine would cease.
It is not just financial and military equipment but also intelligence, collated and provided by the US, employing a multitude of sources including satellites, communication intercepts, mobile phone conversations, etc. This was being provided realtime to the Ukrainians enabling them to select their targets as also determine where the next Russian operation would be launched. Without this support, Ukraine would be at a loss. Putin, who was hoping the ceasefire would work to his benefit, was left smiling from the sidelines.
Russia was certain that post the ceasefire, sanctions would be lifted as the US is keen to draw Russia to its side, isolating China and Iran. Now US-Russia relations may normalize even without the ceasefire. Putin, who was never in a rush to terminate the conflict, would have additional time and a weaker Ukraine, without US support, to manage. It is an outcome even better than he had ever hoped for. China could be the next stop for Zelenskky. It is the next option for negotiating peace with Russia, after the US.
The brashness of Trump in managing Zelenskky goes against the norms of a powerful leader dealing with a nation fighting with its back to the wall. Support to Zelenskky by most US allies in Europe as also Australia display that they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the situation. Alienating allies would isolate any major power. Trump must remember that in the current environment, no nation, irrespective of its power, can handle its challenges alone. MAGA (Make America Great Again) can never happen in isolation. The humiliation of Zelenskky would damage the US’s global standing.
Ultimately the message Washington conveyed is that if you do not adhere to our terms and conditions, we can dump you. It also signalled that Trump believes he will determine the rules-based order which others should follow. For nations like India, Aatmanirbhar Bharat or self-reliance is the sole answer. India’s neutrality in the conflict as also its current silence after the Washington fiasco is the right decision. India must also look beyond the US for its defence needs.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)