All available indications suggest strongly that USA’s hostile relations with the next two big powers – China and Russia – will dominate world politics in the near future. With somewhat less certainty but with increasing concern, fears have been expressed time and again by experts that this can lead to catastrophically destructive situations threatening almost the entire world. Can this emerging scenario be changed drastically to instead create conditions of durable world peace? It is difficult but possible.
This task should be attempted with commitment and never abandoned no matter how adverse the situation because the rewards of success are so great and so are the costs of shying away from this difficult yet most noble of all challenges.
There are two strong reasons why the beginning should come from the USA. Firstly, because the USA is the biggest power today, when seen as a combination of military, economic and technological might. This remains true despite several emerging weaknesses. Secondly, it is in the USA (and in its most important allied countries) that a major peace movement has a much higher chance of gaining strength, whereas the chances of this happening in China or Russia are far more remote.
A strong voice of people for a drastic shift towards securing durable peace is likely to be important for achieving big policy changes of historic importance. This requires sustained mobilisation of people on a significant scale. The peace movement in the USA and Europe has been relatively weak in recent times but chances of its strengthening certainly exist in conditions where it is of such great importance.
If the big powers decide to pursue a path of peace this will be the biggest contribution for world peace in itself and in addition will help to settle many other prolonged conflicts of the world. In addition, this will help to create those conditions of international cooperation which are necessary for resolving existential environmental problems led by but not confined to climate change.
If the USA takes this initiative, it will help the country to embark on a path of enlightened world leadership based on peace and cooperation, instead of trying to secure leadership by military and economic dominance. This enlightened leadership role is likely to be happily welcomed by most people and countries of the world. One of the earliest and most welcome impacts of this shift is likely to be seen in securing early peace in Ukraine, to be followed by a massive relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction effort.
Secondly, such a peace initiative and better understanding among three big powers can also prove helpful in stopping the Middleeast conflict at a relatively early stage. If and when the USA and its major allies take the lead for a historic shift towards peace, it is likely that they will get a favorable response from Russia to China, both because this will be helpful for both these countries as well.
There will be such a massive worldwide goodwill for this peace initiative that it will be almost impossible to go against the tide. This move towards peace is likely to be welcomed by most of the major allies of the USA as the people in these countries have been apprehensive about where all this hostility will lead. In addition, they have also been upset about the various high economic costs of this policy of increasing hostility towards Russia and China.
In fact, the well-informed people of the world will feel greatly relieved that the danger of a catastrophic war involving the big powers with its very serious dangers has been avoided and the future prospects of elimination or restraining arsenals of weapons of mass destruction have improved. Most countries will be happy to be spared the tensions of being caught between big power hostilities or having to face ‘with us or them’ calls.
Such a peace initiative will certainly be in the national interest of the USA in terms of establishing its strong credentials for enlightened world leadership. This path of peace will help release funds for helping the ordinary people of the USA, particularly the most vulnerable sections. It will also release more resources for environment protection, including climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Thus as the peace dividend is so useful for meeting people’s needs in better ways and for environment protection, the social movements for justice and environmental protection should join hands with the peace movement to secure a big shift towards the path of peace.
It is clear that the peace movements in the western countries and particularly the USA must play a historically important role in the coming days to prevent catastrophic conditions in the entire world. The efforts should be for justice-based peace, not just peace, both because this is what is most needed and also because the support of the Global South and of the vast majority of the world’s people can be best mobilized for justice-based peace.
(The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071 and Protecting Earth for Children.)