Hillary Clinton was touted to become the first female president of the US (POTUS) during the 2016 presidential election. That did not happen. With Donald Trump and Nikki Haley both announcing their candidacy and Joe Biden hinting at another run, the 2024 election is starting to heat up and speculation again abounds about who might become the first female POTUS.
Kamala Harris has a foot in the door. She automatically becomes the president if Biden passes away or becomes disabled from illness. However, she would not be an “elected” president. It is inevitable that Harris will run for president, presumably in 2024 if Biden does not run or in 2028. Now that Nikki Haley has entered the race, the question is whether either of them, both having Indian roots, will be able to win a presidential election thus becoming the first female POTUS, whether it is in 2024 or in the future.
To answer that question, we note that a vast majority of US presidents were either senators or governors in their political careers before running for presidency (34 out of 46). From that point of view, both Haley and Harris qualify. Haley was governor of South Carolina and Harris was a senator from California before they were nominated to positions of even higher name recognition as US Ambassador to UN and Vice President respectively.
Next, let us see who their competition might be. Among the two best known female Democratic senators, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is too liberal, and Diane Feinstein of California is too old (almost ninety). Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York ran in the 2020 primary race but dropped out in favour of Biden. Chances are that Klobucar will run again in 2024, but Gillibrand’s name has disappeared from the national scene.
On the republican side, senators who often make news are Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Joni Ernst of Iowa. However, Collins and Murkowski are famous for their anti-GOP and/or anti-Trump stance on many issues and do not enjoy support from the hardcore conservative base. Ernst was reportedly vetted by Trump to be his running mate in 2016 and was not chosen.
There are currently nine female governors, six Democrats and three Republicans. Surprisingly, none of them has strong name recognition at a national level except perhaps Kristi Noem of S. Dakota. Noem is a proTrump governor and could conceivably be chosen by Trump as running mate.
Strictly based on credentials, Warren is most qualified. However, the defeat of Hillary Clinton showed that it was not easy to bring the so-called independents under her left-leaning umbrella. Warren’s progressive agenda would push them further to the right. In addition, she does not come across as a friendly person. Americans love a charismatic if not good-looking person to be their president. Hillary was also deficient in this area. The chances are that Warren is going to run in 2024 but is not likely to win.
Klobuchar seems to be balanced in her views with a pleasant personality. Someday, she might become POTUS but not soon in my view, mainly because of lack of strong name recognition.
That brings us back to Kamala Harris and Nikki Haley.
Harris has the advantage of being a triple minority. She is not only a woman, but her father, Donald Harris is an African American (more precisely, a Jamaican American) and her mother Shyamala Gopalan is an Indian immigrant. Harris was raised by her mother after her parents divorced when she was very young. She did not attend an Ivy league school and lived in predominantly black neighbourhoods most of her life. All of these should give her the ability to connect with the minorities and less fortunate segments of society.
Her political strength is obvious in her steady climb. She served as the Attorney General for California for six years. Her name had been mentioned as a potential nominee to become US Attorney General and a Supreme Court Justice. President Obama gave her strong endorsement during her senatorial campaign.
Unfortunately, most political observers, even liberals like Bill Maher have not been impressed by Harris’ vice-presidential performance, especially her failure to address the border crisis in an effective way. Hillary reportedly thinks that Harris lacks the right “political instincts” to become a president. It seems unlikely for her to become the Democratic nominee in 2024. However, we cannot rule her out because she enjoys strong support from Obama who is arguably the most powerful person within the party.
Nikki Haley was born to immigrant Indian Sikh parents – Ajit Singh Randhawa and his wife Raj Kaur. She converted to Christianity and married Michael Haley, a Methodist Christian. She was reportedly considered by Mitt Romney to be his running mate during the 2012 election.
Haley is energetic and articulate with a wry sense of humor. She is pleasant and good-looking. She has the support of some strong GOP leaders. Her views are well respected by both sides of the aisle as evidenced by a 94-6 Senate vote during the confirmation of her UN position. Her UN position gave her considerable exposure to international diplomacy. It is not clear if her early opposition to Trump would cost her some points in the long run among the hardcore Trump base.
Even if Haley does not do well in early primary races, it would be wise for her to target the VP slot by lobbying to be the running mate of the Republican nominee, be it Trump, De Santis or someone else. Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state, alleged in his recent book that Haley tried to replace Mike Pence from the Republican ticket in 2020 with help from Ivanka Trump and her husband. Haley strongly denies that. In any event, if she can become the VP in 2024, chances would be strong for her to win the presidency in 2028.
Some analysts speculate that because of Trump’s unusually polite acceptance of Haley as a contender, there might be an unspoken understanding between the Trump and Haley camps; Haley’s role during the GOP primary could be funneling off votes and delegates from other Trump rivals, but she would eventually be Trump’s running mate.
Another potential candidate, who is neither a senator nor a governor is Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic US representative in the Congress – “the first Hindu in the House” – from the state of Hawaii and former Vice Chair of the Democratic Party.
She seems to be independentminded, opinionated, intelligent, good-looking and not hesitant to articulate her views. She has the unique qualification of being in active military duty. She did run for presidency in 2020 but dropped out in favor of Biden just like everyone else. Her roots also have an indirect Indian flavor. Although not an Indian, she embraced Hinduism in adult life.
She recently left the Democratic party by openly declaring that it is run by a “warmongering cabal of elites” when she resigned. This event raises the possibility of her running in 2024 as an independent or as a running mate of a Republican candidate.
The path to the presidency for a female candidate is a long one. Even Hillary Clinton had to go through the experiences of being first lady, senator, a failed race for presidential nomination and secretary of state before she was deemed to be a front-runner. However, Haley, Harris and Gabbard all have the advantage of being young and can continue to gain experience and name recognition in whatever positions they serve in the next decade. My bet is still on someone with Indian roots becoming the first female elected as the POTUS.
(The writer, a physicist who worked in academia and industry, is a Bengali settled in America.)