How people perceive various important aspects of the current situation in the country? This question becomes particularly important at the time of important general elections in the country. Scientifically conducted surveys can help us understand this better. However, it has often been seen that surveys do not reveal a simple, one-dimensional picture. Sometimes various questions asked in surveys even reveal what at least at first glance appear to be conflicting answers.
Scholars then try to resolve in long debates why this is so. After all, not all aspects of the complex reality can be covered in a few questions and therefore some important factors are invariably left out, leading to the apparent difficulty in reconciling the answers. However politicians may not have the patience for such nuanced understanding; thus, political parties can cherry pick those parts of the survey which suit them the most. In this context attention may be drawn to a recent survey which has shattered some prevailing myths regarding commonly held public perceptions. At the same time, not all the responses of the over 10,000 people covered in this survey point in the same direction, requiring a more nuanced understanding. The reference here is to the Lokniti-CSDS-Hindu (LCH) Pre-Poll Survey 2024.
This survey has revealed that contrary to some widely held notions, there is still high level of support for religious pluralism in India. When asked if they agreed that India belongs to citizens of all religions equally and not just Hindus, as many as 79 per cent of those surveyed said they agree with this. On the other hand only 11 per cent expressed their agreement with the statement that India belongs only to Hindus; 10 per cent did not give any opinion. Further this survey also shows that economic concerns rather than religious ones are the most important for people.
For 27 per cent of the persons surveyed, unemployment was the top concern, for 23 per cent price rise was the top concern, for 13 per cent development was the top concern, while two religious issues mentioned in the survey got the top priority status from a much lower number of persons surveyed (total 10 per cent of the persons for both issues). Those surveyed were also asked – if you compare today with the past five years, do you think it is easier to get jobs or has it become more difficult? Sixty two per cent of the persons surveyed said it is difficult, only 12 per cent said it is easier, 18 per cent said it is the same. When asked for a similar comparison on price-rise over the last 5 years, 71 per cent said prices have increased; only 13 per cent said these have deceased, and the same number said these have remained the same.
When asked for a similar comparison over five years regarding corruption, 55 per cent said that corruption has increased, 19 per cent said that corruption has decreased while the same number said it has remained the same. At the same time, this survey also has some findings which are favourable for assessing the government’s record during the last five years. Despite the widespread perception of increase in unemployment, price-rise and corruption, when those surveyed were asked were asked whether their life had become better or worse, as many as 48 per cent gave a favourable answer. A much smaller number – 35 per cent – said that it has become worse, while 14 per cent said that it has stayed the same. The favourable answer to this question which tries to capture the perception of the overall situation will certainly make the government happy.
Further when those surveyed were asked whether the promise of ‘acche din’ or better days had been fulfilled, 49 per cent said that it had been to a great extent or some extent, while 40 per cent said this had not been fulfilled. Significantly, even poor people offered positive responses to this question. The question remains as to why despite widespread perception of price-rise, unemployment and corruption, more people say that on the whole life is better. This has not been fully explored or answered here. This may be because of welfare or development programmes, such as free rations or other factors. Not all aspects of the complex reality can be captured in a survey, and this is reflected here too in what appears to be a contradiction.
Thus, while people say that corruption, inflation and unemployment are increasing, they also say that economic issues are more important to them with unemployment being the most important. But at the same time more of them say that life overall has become better during the last five years. Hence clearly there are some other factors which make people feel better but are not captured adequately. From the perspective of politics, there is something in this survey for both the government and the opposition. This is exactly what one would expect in the dance of democracy. At the same time, there are some important lessons here for the more serious analysts of the complexities of India.
(The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Man over Machine and A Day in 2071.)