Visiting Germany in the summer of 2022 raises mixed feelings and very many questions. The pandemic has changed the atmosphere of course. But in most places hardly anyone wears a mask nor is any proof of vaccination asked for, but the looming pandemic is never far from thought as temperatures fall and fear of spreading coronavirus is in the mind.
Along with this is as yet a latent fear of the consequences of war, Russias invasion of Ukraine. The dominant concern is that this war is expanding into a World War and even worse a nuclear war.
A step worse is that military action around Europes largest nuclear power plant in the east of Ukraine might turn into a disaster worse than Chernobyl. It is already showing signs in Zaporizhzhia and the IAEA team visiting it is hugely concerned for its fallout and safety of both Ukraine and Europe.
Further, imminence of a looming energy crisis and rising prices at a pace unheard of since probably World War II are prevalent. People are buying old fashioned heaters and cutting down timber to face winter.
Economic growth has slowed down. Curiously there is no sense of unemployment but there are boards and signs of people wanted.
Service people, cashiers, and hospitality staff are only some in the missing category, not to of course forget baggage handlers in airports (about 5,000 pieces of baggage are still stranded at Frankfurt Airport).
Considering all this, the push in Ukraine by Russia can create a nightmarish situation in Europe and geo-strategically affect the world.
Germany, as yet, is not directly involved in the war. But it is separated from Ukraine and Russia by just a few hundred kilometres of Polish territory.
Therefore, it is Poland that is bearing the brunt of the war. Several million Ukrainian citizens, mainly women and children have taken refuge in Poland alone. The number of Ukrainian refugees in Germany is almost a million and they are there at most places. They have refugee status, are allowed to work and draw social benefits. This of course causes some amount of envy in other immigrant groups.
This apart, besides financial funds, Germany is a major supplier of military hardware, as long as it is defensive.
Military aid is mainly channelled through Poland and other East European countries. One can imagine this is not terribly favourable to Russia.
On the other hand, United States installations are around Kaiserslautern and Ramstein in Rhineland; Pfalz is the hub for military aid from the United States. Their presence angers the Russian high command.
There are a major set of intricate issues which have led to the present seething situation.
Firstly, what amazes the rest of the world is the dependency of Germany on Russia for energy, gas and oil.
The large-scale military build-up of Russia was an unexpected blow when in 2021 Moscow began to build up at a huge military scale on the east European border.
It shocked Europe and the world. It was a sudden, shocking manoeuvre. On 21 February 2022, President Putin recognized the non-government-controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (administrative regions) in Ukraine as independent entities and sent Russian troops into those areas.
There was a positive vote by the Russian State Duma (the lower House of the Russian parliament) on 15 February 2022, and on 24 February Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine.
As one examines the next phases, the point being made is that it was all so sudden and such a shock as before this, relations were good.
Therefore, the dependency on Russia got a major shock. The reasoning was that Russia earned its trade and Germany got its gas. It was mutually beneficial.
The European Union reacted immediately and strongly condemned President Putin’s decision to provoke aggression against Ukraine. The question of Ukraine’s territorial integrity was of course put forward along with its sovereignty and independence.
Whatever said and done it was firstly totally unexpected and secondly, had serious ramifications for European Union nations and the western world.
As a condensed explanation, it can be said that to understand the European Union meant that states came voluntarily together to protect themselves in a unified way and bring in economic policies.
Essentially there were no red boundaries within the European Union nor have to principles. But a framework was set up for the common good of the EU countries, which have now expanded to 27.
Ukraine after the decline of the former Soviet Union strived to be a member of the European Union.
It has now attained the status of a candidate for accession to the European Union. But of course, getting membership is a long process. This is probably the major reason for annoyance to Russia. Russia deems it as antithetical to its own territorial influence.
As far as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is concerned, at the June 2021 Brussels summit, NATO leaders submitted that Ukraine would join NATO and that Russia could not interfere with this, nor veto its decision.
But before further action on NATO membership was taken, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Moreover, President Putin, keeping up with his macho image, really aimed to bring Ukraine back into the sphere of Russian influence.
The European Union is committed to continue to show solidarity and provide support to the refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine and countries hosting them. Germany has taken in about a million refugees. On its part, the European Union has adopted six packages of sanctions in response to the recognition of the non- government-controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and Russias unprecedented and unprovoked military attack on Ukraine.
Essentially the measures were designed to weaken Russias economic lease, depriving it of critical technologies and markets and significantly curtailing its ability to wage war. As one can see, that is not really happening. The war is still going on.