The trends of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2017 are a clear indicator of the Bhartiya Janata Party landslide’s victory in the state. It will mark the end of the party’s 14 year ‘vanvaas’ in the country’s most important state in terms of electoral politics and also pave the way for the BJP’s likely return to power at the Centre in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP’s decisive lead has also ensured the complete decimation of the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Trends indicate that none of these parties and political combinations would be able to touch the 100 figure mark as the SP-Congress alliance was leading in about 70 seats and the BSP in only about 20 seats.
According to the latest trends the BJP was leading in over 300 seats in a House of 403 members and may end up with a overall tally which can touch the 300 figure mark.The party is leading in 304 seats and is way ahead of its nearest rival the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance.
It is for the first time in the history of UP that the BJP is expected to cross the 300 seat mark. Even at the height of the Ram Janambhoomi movement the party could notch up 200 plus seats, which paved the way for the Kalayan Singh government . This movement was however the first indicator of the BJP having established its presence in UP. Elections 2017 will see it firmly in the saddle. The saffron wave or one can say the Modi wave swept aside all talks of a reverse impact of demonetisation, intolerant India, caste and religious politics in addition to the `Pheku’ tag attached to prime minister Narendra Modi by his opponents.
fact, the BJP leadership in the state has attributed the expected landslide win to the “Modi wave”, which surfaced in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and continues to resonate even now, perhaps with a more decisive impact. The UP president of the BJP, Keshav Prasad Maurya said the momentum gathered in the 2017 assembly elections will help the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.
More importantly, the BJP has gained from the aggressive campaigning by the Prime Minister and the party president Amit Shah even as there are enough indications to suggest that “polarization factor” could also have contributed to the party’s expected thumping victory.
Important individual trends suggest that Amita Singh of the Congress is trailing in Amethi while Garima Singh of the BJP is leading. Azam Khan of the SP is leading in Rampur while his son, Abdullah Azam is trailing in Swar. Jitin Prasada of the Congress is leading in Tilhar and Imran Masood of the Congress is also leading.