The exercise to select contestants for the November 13 by-polls on seven Assembly seats in Rajasthan has become a battle of nerves for both the ruling BJP and the Congress, setting the stage for a challenging contest next month.
The Congress faces the task of defending six of the seven seats going to the polls next month, while the BJP aims to win back only one seat: Salumbar (ST).
In the last assembly elections in December 2023, the Congress won Jhunjhunu, Ramgarh, Dausa, and Deoli-Uniara on its own, while its allies, the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and the Bharatiya Aadiwasi Party (BAP), secured the Khimsar and Chorasi (ST) seats, respectively.
Hence, the grand old party has bigger stakes in next month’s elections, far greater than those of the ruling dispensation.
This compulsion has made Congress particularly cautious about finalising its candidates and deciding whether to maintain its alliance with the INDIA bloc.
Significantly, the party state leadership after the state coordination committee meeting on Monday decided to go to polls without alliance and field its own candidates in all 7 assembly segments.
Although the decision was in response to the general demand from grassroots workers at the local level in both Assembly segments — Khimsar and Chorasi (ST) — it did not align with the prevailing popular belief in the state supporting the alliance.
However, the final choice of the party’s nominees— as announced by the leadership on Thursday — reflected an attempt to mitigate this dampening effect.
In the allotment of party tickets, the central leadership accepted the choice of party MPs in the Dausa, Jhunjhunu, and Deoli-Uniara segments. In Ramgarh, Khimsar, Salumbar (ST), and Chorasi (ST), they have gone by the selection made by state president Govind Singh Dotasara based on the collective opinion of local and provincial leaders.
The criteria, which genuinely reflected the sentiments of the grassroots workers, could have paid dividends to the grand old party had it not involved the decision to walk out of the alliance.
Moreover, the BJP cadres’ fighting spirit, bolstered by the party’s impressive victory in the Haryana elections, is keeping Congress workers and campaigners on their toes.
Now that the two main contenders for political supremacy in the state have declared their candidates for all seven vacant seats, the contest, which initially appeared to favour the grand old party, has evolved into a keen battle, particularly in Khimsar, Chorasi(ST), Salumbar-(ST), and Dausa.
The ground situation in Dausa will draw the attention of both the BJP and Congress have fielded strong candidates with carefully crafted strategies.
This will be an unusual contest between a nominee from the Scheduled caste and a candidate from the Scheduled Tribe on a general seat.
Another notable aspect is that both contenders for the seat rely on borrowed strength. BJP nominee Jagmohan Meena draws strength from his elder brother, the influential Dr Kirodi Lal Meena, while his Congress rival, Deen Dayal Bairwa, is backed by the newly elected MP Murari Lal Meena, who vacated the seat following his election to the Lok Sabha.
Before the finalisation of the tickets, there was a popular and persistent belief that an understanding had been reached between MP Murari Lal and Dr Kirodi Lal Meena, stipulating that if Dr Meena’s brother received the BJP ticket, the former would not support any of his family members for the Congress ticket.
Since Kirodi Meena’s brother has been fielded by the ruling party, the MP has cleared Bairwa’s name for the Congress ticket instead of selecting a family member.
Consequently, speculation about the tacit understanding remains, although the ground reality does not support such a condition. After all, the credibility and reputation of MP Meena and Sachin Pilot will be at stake.
This factor is potent enough to trigger a keen contest in Dausa.
Elsewhere, In Jhunjhunu — the stronghold of sitting MP Brijendra Singh Ola — the Congress has reason to be optimistic about the victory of its nominee, Amit Ola. This seat has been a safe bastion for the Ola clan since the era of Amit’s grandfather, the late Shish Ram Ola.
Brijendra Ola’s election to the Lok Sabha has necessitated the upcoming by-polls.
Besides Jhunjhunu, two more seats — Ramgarh and Salumbar (ST) — will see the kin of former leaders sailing on sympathy factor. These contests are set between Aryaan, son of late MLA Zuber Khan (Congress), and Sukhwant Singh (BJP), as well as Shanta Meena, widow of late Amrit Meena (BJP), and Reshma Meena (Congress).
The Khimsar and Chorasi seats are poised for a three-cornered contest among the Congress, BJP, and RLP, and the Congress, BJP, and BAP, respectively.
Meanwhile, the process of filing nominations gained momentum on the penultimate day on Thursday.
The ruling BJP nominees also filed their nominations in the respective constituencies. Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma has also visited Jhunjhunu, Ramgarh, Dausa, and Deoli-Uniara segments to participate in nomination processions and public meetings. Union ministers Arjun Lal Meghwal, Bhupendra Yadav, BJP state president Madan Rathore, and other senior party leaders also participated in these events.