The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday issued the the long range forecast update for Southwest Monsoon 2020, wherein it announced that it expects monsoon rainfall to be normal this year.
“Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96-104 per cent),” the IMD said.
It said that quantitatively, the monsoon season rainfall for the country as a while is likely to be 102 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 4 per cent.
Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 107 per cent of LPA over North-West India, 103 per cent of LPA over Central India, 102 per cent of LPA over South Peninsula and 96 per cent of LPA over Northeast India, all with a model error of 8 per cent.
The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103 per cent of its LPA during July and 97 per cent of LPA during August, with a model error of 9 per cent, the IMD said in the Southwest Monsoon 2020 forecast.
It said that global models have indicated cool ENSO conditions likely to prevail during the monsoon season with some possibility of development of weak La Niña conditions in the later part of the monsoon season.
Currently, ENSO Neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and Neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean.
Meanwhile, the Southwest Monsoon arrived in Kerala on Monday as predicted by the India Meteorological Department bringing heavy rains to several parts in the state and marking the commencement of the four-month long rainfall season in the country.
The four-month monsoon season from June to September accounts for 75 per cent of rainfall in the country.
Meanwhile, the depression in the Arabian Sea is expected to further intensify into a cyclonic storm ‘Nisarga’ and cross north Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts between Harihareshwar in Raigard district and Daman on June 3, the IMD said on Monday.