The elections are finally here in the sandy desert of Rajasthan. Mainly it would be a contest between the ruling Congress and Opposition BJP parties but the state level political parties have put both of them in a triangular contest on about 80 seats.
The high profile election campaign for 199 seats of assembly will end on Thursday evening. The ruling Congress, the BJP, BSP, RLP, CPI-M, and AAP have left no stone unturned to lure the voters for the November 25 voting in Rajasthan. Though the voting was scheduled on 200 seats but election on one seat of Karanpur was postponed after Congress candidate Gurmeet Kunnar’s death.
One thing is very clear that there is no wave in this election like there was Modi wave in LS 2014 and 2018 polls. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is overwhelmed that there has been no anti-incumbency factor to his government that could harm his prospects of winning a second consecutive term in the present polls. Gehlot’s 10 flagship schemes implemented in his tenure and offering 7-gurantees, if voted to power, has kept BJP troubled and confused, that is why the Modi government inaugurated and laid the foundation stone of schemes worth crores of rupees in all sectors in the last six months.
For the last 15 years, there was a pattern of one term (five years) for one party and the next term for another party. Once BJP, second time Congress. It appears that it’s no cakewalk for BJP which is considering her turn of power as certain with greedy eyes. Congress is complacent of its flagship schemes and 7-guarantees.
While the BJP is solely dependent on party symbol ‘Kamal’ (lotus) and ‘Modi Face’ as projected by the Prime Minister himself in various poll rallies. Keeping away the prominent local leaders mainly former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje from his coterie, Modi was always joined in every poll rallies, road shows and meetings by the State BJP President CP Joshi who is LS MP from Chittorgarh too. At a few public meetings, Raje was seen sitting on dais with the PM but did not deliver her speech. Without taking any risk, BJP has fielded its 7 MPs in the assembly elections, that too by changing their original constituencies.
In the last assembly poll 2018, out of 200 Legislative Assembly, the Congress had won and formed the government with 100 (with one alliance partner) MLAs, whereas BJP had 71, RLP 3, BSP 6 (who later joined the Congress in 2019), Independent 13, CPI-M and BTP 2 each. Congress has a vote percentage of 39.30 and BJP secured 38.77 percent. The government formation by the Congress took place at the difference of 0.53 percent against the BJP.
Probably third front, the BSP, RLP, Tribal Parties (BTP and ATP) which are having up to 1 to 4 percent of vote share are going to give a triangular contest to the Congress and BJP. Like BSP and Independents which supported the Gehlot government when the BJP allegedly tried to topple the Government in 2020-21, can play a major role in forming the new government, if it is a hung assembly.
Congress’ CM Ashok Gehlot, Sachin PIlot, CP Joshi, Govind Singh Dotasara, Dr B D Kalla and BJP’s Vasundhara Raje, Rajendra Rathore, seven sitting BJP MPs and one of the RLP are among the 1875 contestants are in the fray.
Besides two major political parties, BSP’s 188 candidates, AAP’s 87, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party’s (RLP) 77, Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) 5 and CPI-M’s 17 contestants are vying the election. Out of 1875 candidates, the Congress has fielded 200 (with one alliance of RLD), BJP 200, Independents 737, BSP 185, AAP 86, RLD 78, and CPI-M Three.
Final verdict of this election is still in the hands of voters (other than BJP & Congress’ fundamental voters) that may swing due to two factors; the castes (SC/ST/OBC/Minority/Gurjar/Jat/Rajput) and candidate’s close affinity with voters. Caste factor most of the time dominates and decides the candidates’ fate in the Rajasthan polls.
Twenty-six ministers including CM Gehlot are also trying hard to return to their constituencies. Seventeen rebels of Congress, and 23 of BJP are among other third front parties facing triangular contests on at least 80 seats. Congress has given tickets to contest polls only to 27 women (13.5 percent), and BJP 20 (10 percent). Besides the BJP, all other parties have given opportunities to muslims to try their luck for legislators.
In their manifestos, the Congress and BJP both have given slew of gurantees to the public for their social life, jobs employment, medical care, to reduce inflation, benefits to farmers, women and social security, and free education to girls with latest electronic gadgets, if voted to power.