Himachal Pradesh elections: In a state with thin victory margins, both BJP and Congress are wary of AAP being a spoiler. Himachal pradesh voter which has traditionally chosen the alternate power-sharing pattern between traditional rivals Congress and BJP in Himachal Pradesh (HP) since 1990 the entry of AAP, it is presumed may dent the political prospects.
The anti-incumbency factor has always been at play for over three decades in the hill state in the Assembly elections and seemingly it is Congress’ turn to get power this time.
The grand old party has also been bolstered by bypoll victories from the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, home district of Himachal CM Jai Ram Thakur, and three other assembly constituencies last year. But in absence of the party’s six-time Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh and no leader having a base beyond their constituencies, it seems a tough route for the party. The party lost elections in four states earlier this year as well.
Earlier attempts of the third front in the state failed as they didn’t throw a pan Himachal challenge to Congress and BJP. Except in 1998 when Cong rebel Sukh Ram-led Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC) got five seats with 9.63 percent votes, and in 1990 when Janta Dal (JD) got 11 seats pushing Congress to the third position.
BSP, CPI, CPM, and other regional local parties tried their hand but failed to give triangular contests over the years.
In 2017, the BJP won a majority with 44 seats and a vote share of 48.79% (18,46,432 votes), while Congress got seats 21 with 41.68% vote share (15,77,450 votes). The difference in votes between the two parties was 2.69 lakh, which comes to 3,955 votes per seat.
In 2012, Congress won 36 seats with a vote share of 42.81% (14,47,319 votes), while BJP got 26 seats with 38.47% vote share (13,00,756 votes). The difference in votes between the two parties was 1.47 lakh which comes to 2,155 votes per seat.
In 2007, the difference between Cong and BJP votes was 1.61 lakh which comes to 2,362 votes per seat and in 2003 the difference between the votes was 1.72 lakh which translates to 2,522 votes per seat.
The figures reflect that any potential third front could alter the outcome of seats as margins have remained thin.
“Anti-incumbency has always been a big factor in HP polls. People have been changing governments after every five years. There is no dearth of state-level leaders in the state. So, AAP hardly has any chance,” said Prof Ashutosh Kumar, from the Department of Political Science, Panjab University (PU).
“HP has always seen thin-margin victories being a small state. AAP will dent Congress votes as it will split anti-incumbency votes. Moreover, AAP has shifted focus to Gujarat, and it is not campaigning much in the hill state,” he added.
Prof Ramesh K Chauhan, from the Department of Political Science, Himachal Pradesh University (HPU), opined, “Recently, AAP leadership has not been active on the ground in HP as they have shifted focus to Gujarat. So to say AAP emerging as a third alternative is hypothetical. Also considering the fact that they have so far not managed to pull big leaders from both BJP and Congress.”
Both BJP and Congress leaders have dismissed AAP as a contender in the HP polls. But it is a fact that the ruling saffron party announced subsidized power and free travel for women because of fear of AAP.
AAP HP in-charge and Punjab education minister Harjot Singh Bains said, “AAP has a direct fight with BJP in HP. Congress leaders are not coming to HP or Gujarat to oppose the saffron party but are roaming around in other states. Soon, honest leaders from both BJP and Congress will join AAP.