The political instability in Bangladesh and the abrupt departure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from Dhaka have sparked significant concern in New Delhi, raising the spectre of increased cross-border influx into the northeastern states of India.
The potential rise in infiltration from Bangladesh, already a critical issue in the region, is now at the forefront of discussions.
Student organizations, such as the All Assam Students Union and the Khasi Students Union, have sounded the alarm about the possible increase in illegal crossings through the porous border.
Bangladesh shares a 4,096-kilometer border with India, touching West Bengal and several northeastern states.
Fears of an influx from a politically unstable Bangladesh gripped the Northeast. Tipra Motha, a constituent of the BJP-led government in Tripura, appealed to Union Home Minister Amit Shah to take measures to prevent infiltration.
In Assam, the Opposition Congress and the Assam Jatiya Parishad expressed concerns about potential border breaches due to the “unsealed border.”
Assam Pradesh Congress Committee president Bhupen Kumar Borah emphasized the need for heightened vigilance along the Bangladesh border to prevent illegal entries, including those of fundamentalist and extremist elements.
“We must be extra cautious. Both the state government and the Centre need to ensure that the unrest in Bangladesh does not adversely affect Assam, the Northeast, and India,” Borah stated.
The Indo-Bangla border spans 4,096 kilometers, with 2,217 kilometers along West Bengal and 318 kilometers along Mizoram.
While Meghalaya has imposed a night curfew along the Indo-border, Assam issued a high alert along the border areas.
The fall of the Hasina regime could exacerbate another issue for India: many northeastern insurgent groups have historically used Bangladesh as a safe haven for anti-India activities.
Since coming to power in 1996, Hasina has cracked down on these groups. However, with fundamentalist factions potentially gaining power in Bangladesh, supported by China and Pakistan, India could face significant challenges.
Additionally, the instability in Bangladesh poses a threat to India’s Act East Policy, where Bangladesh plays a crucial role as a major trade route.
The evolving political landscape in Bangladesh could disrupt this strategic initiative, complicating India’s efforts to enhance economic and diplomatic ties with Southeast Asia.