Exit polls for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections 2024 indicate a strong lead for the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance, although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to dominate the Jammu region.
However, despite the BJP’s sweeping performance in Jammu, they post poll survey predict the saffron party may fall well short of the majority required to form the government in the 90-member assembly.
According to post-poll surveys, the BJP is projected to secure over 40 percent of the vote share in the Jammu region but is once again predicted to be held back by the Kashmir valley, where it is not expected to win any seats.
The India Today-C Voter exit poll projected the NC-Congress combine could win between 40 and 48 seats, bringing them close to the halfway mark of 45 needed for a majority.
The BJP, according to the same poll, is expected to win between 27 and 32 seats, with all their seats likely coming from the Jammu region.
The Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is projected to win between 6 and 12 seats, positioning itself as a potential kingmaker.
Other parties and independent candidates are expected to secure between 6 and 11 seats.
Another exit poll by People’s Pulse predicted a similar outcome, projecting that the NC-Congress alliance could win between 46 and 50 seats, solidifying their lead in the race.
The BJP is forecasted to win between 23 and 27 seats, while the PDP may capture between 7 and 11 seats.
Smaller parties and independents are expected to win between 4 and 6 seats.
Meanwhile, the Axis My India exit poll also gives an edge to the Congress-NC alliance, projecting them to win between 35 and 45 seats.
The BJP is expected to win between 24 and 34 seats, while the PDP may secure 4 to 6 seats, and others are expected to win 3-8 seats.
The exit polls often get it wrong and final results will be announced on October 8.