Cyclone Tej approaching: What we know so far

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The meteorological authorities are keeping a watchful eye on the Arabian Sea, where early indications suggest the potential formation of a post-monsoon cyclone around October 22-23. This impending weather phenomenon might be given the name ‘Cyclone Tej’. Alongside the brewing cyclone, Mumbai is anticipated to experience cooler night temperatures, potentially dropping to around 22-23°C.

Meteorologists have detected the initial signs of a probable cyclonic storm developing in the Arabian Sea, but they remain uncertain about its intensity. Currently, there exists a cyclonic circulation pattern over the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjacent Lakshadweep region. Under the influence of this pattern, a low-pressure area is expected to materialize in the same vicinity.

An official mentioned in public press reports that, at the present moment, the probability of the system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not notably high. They noted that meteorological models have not achieved a consensus, and there remains uncertainty in their forecasts. The official emphasized the need for patience and waiting for a few more days to attain a clearer understanding.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) provided insights into the situation, noting, “The cyclonic circulation observed yesterday over the Lakshadweep area, the southeast Arabian Sea, and the Kerala coast has now shifted to the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjoining Lakshadweep region at lower tropospheric levels, extending up to 3.1 kilometers above mean sea level.”

The IMD’s daily weather update on Monday further outlined, “Under its influence, a Low-Pressure Area is likely to develop over the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea in the next 48 hours. It is expected to track west-northwestward and potentially evolve into a depression over the central Arabian Sea by around October 21, 2023.”

In sum, while there are early indications of a brewing cyclone, it remains a complex and evolving weather situation. The meteorological community is closely monitoring the development, and the final trajectory and impact of the potential Cyclone Tej will depend on a variety of factors, including atmospheric conditions and data consensus among forecasting models. It is only with time that a clearer understanding of this weather event will come into focus.