In the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, attention in Assam will be focussed on three key seats: Jorhat, Dibrugarh, and Dhubri, offering crucial insights into the state’s political dynamics.
Jorhat, a prestigious constituency in Upper Assam, will witness a high-stakes battle between Congress Deputy Speaker in Lok Sabha, Gaurav Gogoi, and BJP’s incumbent Tapan Gogoi, a former AASU leader who joined the party prior to the 2015 elections.
This contest will be closely scrutinised by political observers, providing indicators of the direction of “Ahom politics” in Upper Assam.
Former chief minister of the state and current Union Minister, Sarbananda Sonowal, is also vying for the Dibrugarh seat. Assam has seen a notable number of chief ministers originating from the Ahom belts, making this candidacy particularly significant.
Politics in Upper Assam has historically been influenced by sub-nationalist or ‘jatiotabadi’ sentiments rather than Hindutva ideals. Following the implementation of the CAA, protests erupted in various areas of Upper Assam, making the election results a significant barometer of public sentiment towards the CAA, which intersects with the core provisions of the Assam Accord.
Dhubri, with its Muslim-majority demographics, holds considerable importance. The AIUDF gained prominence in state politics by attracting a substantial portion of Congress’s Muslim voters.
In this election, Congress has fielded former state Home Minister Rockybul Hussain against AIUDF supremo Badruddin Ajmal, showcasing the influence of minority politics on Assam’s political landscape.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured nine out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam, a significant improvement from its two-seat tally in 2014. The Congress won three seats, and the AIUDF clinched one. The BJP also garnered an impressive vote share of 36 per cent, closely followed by the Congress with 35.4 per cent.