Exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections on Saturday showed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA emerging as the easy winner, securing two-thirds of over 350 seats in the early trends, widening its social base and opening accounts in southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
As per India Today’s Axis My India Exit Survey, out of Tamil Nadu’s 39 seats, the DMK is likely to get 20-22 seats, the BJP one to three seats and the Congress six to eight; and the rest of the seats going to others.
As per the same survey, in Kerala, the BJP appears to be securing 27 per cent vote share, and getting two to three seats out of the state’s 20 seats. The Congress is likely to get 13-14 seats as part of the UDF’s tally of 17-18, while the LDF may get one seat in the State.
In Karnataka, the BJP is likely to get 20-22 of the 28 seats, while its ally, the JD (S), may get three and the Congress 3 to 5 seats.
As per the Axis My India Exit Poll, out of Bihar’s total 40 seats, the NDA is likely to get 29-33 seats (the BJP 13-15; the JD (U) 9-11, the LJP 4-6), while the INDIA bloc may get 7-10 (the RJD 6-7, Congress 1-2).
Out of Jharkhand’s 14 total, the INDIA is likely to get 4-6 seats against the BJP’s 8-10. In Madhya Pradesh with 29 seats, the BJP is sweeping and likely to get 28-29 seats while the Congress may get one of Sidhi or Gwalior. Among Rajasthan’s 25 seats, the BJP is likely to get 16-19 seats and the Congress 5-7.
According to the ABP Cvoter Survey, the BJP-led NDA may get 1-3 seats in Kerala, while the Congress-led UDF may get 17-18. Out of Tamil Nadu’s 39 seats, the NDA may get two, while the INDIA may get 37-39. Out of Telangana’s 17 seats, the BJP may get 7-9 seats, which is the same as the Congress which may also get 7-9 seats, according to the Survey.
In Karnataka, according to the CVoter Survey, the NDA may get 23-25 seats and INDIA 3-5. In Andhra Pradesh NDA may get 21-25 out of the State’s 25 seats. Rajasthan has 25 seats and the BJP is likely to get 21-23 seats and the INDIA 2-4. Out of Gujarat’s 26 seats, the BJP is likely to sweep and may get 25-26 seats, while one may go to INDIA.
The CNN News18’s Mega Exit Polls showed in Kerala the Congress-led UDF may get 15-18 seats, the LDF 2-5 while the BJP-led NDA 1-3 seats. In Tamil Nadu, INDIA is likely to get 36-39 seats and the NDA 1-3, while the AIADMK may get two.
According to the same survey, the NDA may get 23-26 seats in Karnataka; and Congress 3-7. In Maharashtra with 48 seats, the NDA may get 32-35, while the INDIA may get 15-18. BJP is likely to get all 26 seats in Gujarat, a party stronghold.
Among Andhra Pradesh’s 25 seats, 19-22 may go to the NDA while the YSRCP may get 5-8. In Karnataka, 23-26 seats may go to the NDA while Congress may get 3-7. Out of Telangana’s 17 total, the BRS may get just between 2-5, while the Congress may get 5-8 seats and the BJP 7-10 seats.
In Rajasthan, of the 25 seats, 23 may go to the BJP kitty. In Assam, of the 14 seats, the Congress is likely to get 2-5 seats while the NDA will get the majority between 10 and 13 seats.
Out of Punjab’s 13 seats, 2-4 seats are predicted for the BJP, while the Congress may get 8 to 10 seats and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) just one. In Delhi with seven seats, the BJP may get 5-7.
Surveyors guessed whether there were state level narratives influencing the polls along with national narratives.
Some surveyors felt the voters were silent and it was a “wave-less” election. States along the Bay of Bengal could indicate a pattern.