A real challenge

The liberation of East Pakistan and the birth of Bangladesh in December 1971 was a momentous event of the post-World War II period for several reasons. First, it was the most populous state created after decolonisation and that too by dividing the Bengal Delta which, according to geographers, is not amenable to any physical/ political division, as that entails intractable problems like sharing of river water and fixing boundaries.

Second, Bangladesh is the only Muslim region that seceded from another Muslim state, Pakistan, which was carved out, ironically, as a homeland for Indian Muslims. It is another matter that practically all Muslims, other than those in the Indian part of Punjab, decided to remain in India and there was virtually no migration of Muslims from West Bengal and Assam. 

Few would recall today that the Constituent Assembly and the provincial assemblies, which decided to divide India, were formed in 1946 by an electorate of only 30 million, as the franchise was severely restricted under the Government of India Act 1935.

In the North-east, the emergence of Bangladesh produced mixed feelings of high hopes and apprehension, as it also coincided with the reorganisation of Assam and  the region under the North East Areas Reorganisation Act 1971. The reopening of the river route and border trade were well received  but after  the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the beginning of the Assam movement against foreign nationals from 1979, primarily to stop influx from Bangladesh, the country came to be seen as a part of the problem. That produced an attitude of, what may be described at best, constructive indifference and  apathy towards Bangladesh in the North-east throughout the last three decades with the exception of Tripura. This is  evident  from the fact that the North-east media routinely ignores the positive developments in Bangladesh and the great strides it has made in diverse fields like becoming the only near total open defecation-free country in South Asia, high female literacy and empowerment, and in micro credit and women micro enterprises and garments industry.

 Yes there are problems caused by political Islam and terror but progressive forces are also at work, taking the country forward, which prompted observers to call it the “Bangladesh paradox”. Above all, it has proved Henry Kissinger’s assessment wrong by earning the tag of an emerging economy. It is in the interest of the North-east to note the unreported economic success story of Bangladesh and recall what the late Purna Sangma said “for us in the North-east, Look East means look South to Bangladesh first”. 

In this background, certain recent developments of the Bangladeshi economy deserve notice. According to the International Monetary Fund, Bangladesh is the second fastest growing economy of 2016 with 7.1 per cent rate of growth (projection for 2017 being  6.9 per cent) and per capita GDP in nominal US dollar terms is at $1,403, which calculated at the Purchasing Power Parity on 2016 prices, works out as $ 3,889. 

This position of GDP per capita being above $1,000 has enabled the World Bank to raise Bangladesh from “low income” to “lower middle income” group of countries — it includes India and Pakistan as well. 

We may also note that the per capita GDP of Bangladesh as well as its growth rate are about the same as ours, estimated at about $ 1,500 and 7 per cent, respectively. This will cause some discomfort in some circles who view Bangladesh  as “desperately poor” — evidently its per capita GDP is well above the per capita income of individual North-eastern states. Bangladesh’s economy is robust and diversified with a strong export sector led by the ready-made garments industry, which contributed $ 27 billion in 2016. With advancing skills and entrepreneurship imperative for market-led growth, the size of the Bangladeshi economy — presently close to $ 200 might scale up to $ 332 in 2021 as per World Bank projections. 

This breakthrough, according to observers, is quite feasible as Bangladesh can be an export power house at the level of her East Asian neighbours by improving its business competitiveness. The annual remittances from migrant Bangladeshi expatriates are about 7.9 per cent of GDP now, which is a huge development resource for the country as it provides a solid cushion for balancing the foreign trade account. Interest-ingly, the high growth forecast is partly based on a 44 per cent increase over 2014 in flow of FDI which for the first time has crossed two billion dollars. 

Bangladesh’s social development indicators are impressive — the life expectancy at birth is now 70 years and longer than India and Pakistan and significantly, the proportion of people below the poverty line  is now 22 per cent due to effective implementation of poverty alleviation programmes and the great success of Grameen model of women-led micro credit and entrepreneurship development — in which the Chinese have recently shown an interest. This and employment of women in the garments industry raised women’s participation in the work force and consequently, the assertion of their rights. Thus it has been possible for Bangladesh to ban “triple talaq” even when it is an Islamic Republic while India is still grappling with this matter.

The challenges are still many. Bangladesh is most vulnerable to climate change as two-thirds of its land is at less than five metres above the sea level and 60 per cent of the population is dependent on agriculture. However, Bangladesh is endowed with two trillion cubic metres of gas. In this context, the 2015 order of the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration in the matter of its dispute with India has given Bangladesh a great advantage when the latter established a case for its “sovereign rights on more than 1,18813 sq km of territorial sea, 200 nautical miles of Exclusive Economic Zone” and all kinds of animal and non-animal resources under the Continental Shelf up to 354 nautical miles from Chittagong. The Tribunal awarded Bangladesh 19,467 sq km of maritime area out of 25,602 sq km of disputed area. This is a big boon for Bangladesh as the territorial sea area allotted is bigger than its land area and rich with under-sea oil, gas and marine resources.

In this scenario, during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Dhaka in October, on his way, to the BRICS summit at Goa, it was declared that China would  support the development efforts of Bangladesh with an investment of $ 26 billion for infrastructure. That has great geo-political significance for  eastern and North-east India for several reasons.

First, it would be the largest FDI for infrastruc-tural facilities in Bangladesh, which would enable it to absorb the shifting of some Chinese industries, which might be rendered unviable there due to rising labour and other costs of manufacturing. Second, it would raise significantly Bangladesh’s demand for coal, cement, iron and steel, limestone and other products now available in its neighbourhood in the North-east and other parts of India. Third, the increase in North-east India-Bangladesh trade may facilitate reopening of the rail-road transit facility through Bangladesh and access to the Chittagong and Mongla ports. That is important because when the Kaladan multi modal India Myanmar project is fully operational, Bangladesh might be inclined to share a part of the increased cargo movement with India’s North-east. 

There is, however, a need to develop a strategy to take advantage of this opportunity, which Tripura had shown by putting in place the Agartala doctrine of framing its own approach to Bangladesh while taking the Centre fully on board. This is clear from the launch of the Agartala-Dhaka direct bus service, project for construction of the Akhaura-Agartala rail link, and supply of power to Bangladesh from its Palatana gas-based power plant. The plant’s construction was facilitated by Bangladesh as it agreed to use of its river port for moving heavy power generation machines to Tripura that reduced the project cost significantly. This shows that each North-eastern state, and Assam and Meghalaya in particular, will need a state-specific policy for raising the level of economic interaction with Bangladesh. And one must note that implicit in the Act East policy — an effort to participate in the globalisation process — is a lesson derived from post World War II development experience that “geography is economic destiny” of all nations. 

Thus  initiatives like the Trans-Asian railway and highways network are all set to reduce the importance of national frontiers for progress. In this emerging scenario of a new South and South-east Asia, a paranoiac attitude to one’s neighbourhood, for whatever reason, makes little practical sense and should be substituted for enlightened national interest to see and reap benefits from developments in the neighbourhood. This is the real challenge before the North-east in the 21st century.