Opinion polls conducted by ABP News and Lokniti CDS have predicted win for BJP in Gujarat in their latest round of survey results. However, there is a remarkable swing in the Congress’ numbers and vote share from the survey results in August.
The Congress Party has been able to bridge the gap from 30 per cent lead to 6 per cent lead that the August poll predicted for the BJP. The Congress has also dented the vote share of the BJP by reducing it to 47 per cent from the earlier 59 per cent.
The opinion poll gave the BJP between 113 and 121 seats in the 182-seat Gujarat Assembly, which is not even close to the 150-seat target set by their national party president Amit Shah. However, the predicted number of seats will give BJP a sigh of relief as the party is set to retain about a similar number (119 seats), which they had won in the last assembly elections.
The survey results gave Congress 58-64 seats and a vote share of about 41 percent. For the party, North Gujarat and Saurashtra-Kutchh regions are important in the overall schemes of things as the two together account for 107 seats and the party is expecting to make gains in both the regions. North Gujarat and Saurashtra-Kutchh are also important for all the parties as they are home to the majority of Patidar-populated cities and towns.
The party is set to garner 42 per cent votes in Saurashtra-Kutchh and 49 percent votes in North Gujarat region.
However, the Congress is not expected to do well in Central Gujarat. The party will secure only 38 per cent vote share in the region, while the BJP is expected to secure 54 per cent votes. South Gujarat is another region where Congress is expected to play a second fiddle to the BJP, securing just 33 per cent votes, compared to 51 per cent votes for the BJP.
Soon after the declaration of the opinion polls by ABP news and Lokniti CDS, the Patidar leader Hardik Patel took to Twitter saying, “In the opinion poll, the BJP is going to be blighted in Saurashtra and North Gujarat. Farmers, youth and all communities are angry. So where is the victory? Well, I understand, all this is done to keep the BJP happy. Jai-Jai Garavi Gujarat.” (Translated)
The survey also brought to light the reducing popularity of Patidar leader Hardik Patel among his community members. Of the total reviews, 30 per cent gave an opinion that they do not like him and 64 per cent people conveyed that they ‘liked’ Patel.