Foreign brokerage, UBS is underweight on expensive markets such as India where retail flows could be at risk with higher rates and hurts from higher oil.
On India, UBS said, “Expensive valuations vs. ordinary fundamental performance of companies. The market may be ignoring risks on rural demand from El Nino, in our view. Market’s base case appears to be regime continuity in next year’s elections. With tech upcycle unfolding and potential China recovery, the ‘safety premium on India’ could reverse. Retail flows could soften as bank deposits remain elevated.”
UBS said, “Our market framework takes into account six fundamental factors (based on earnings and valuations) as well as thematic and quant factors that change through time depending on what we think are relevant issues.
“On our fundamental/valuation framework, China, Brazil and Philippines look the most compelling, while India, Thailand and Taiwan look the least attractive.”
While major EM markets have seen net foreign inflows for most of 2023, overall EM flows have reversed to outflows in the last three months (especially after the close of 3Q) with almost all major markets seeing net selling foreign flows by market led by China and Taiwan. The most intense selling (as per cent of market cap) was seen in South Africa, Taiwan and Thailand. YTD, the only markets with foreigner buying are India, Korea and Brazil.