As the second wave of Covid-19 and the resultant restrictions again cripple economic activities, the State Bank of India (SBI) has revised India’s growth outlook downwards for the current financial year.
The latest SBI Ecowrap report has projected a 7.9 per cent growth for India’s GDP, down from its previous projection of 10.4 per cent growth.
However, it added: “We impart an upward bias to this number with the fervent hope of 1 crore vaccinations per day beginning mid-July as per Government projections.”
It also noted that there is likely to be “disproportionately larger” impact on economy this time and given that rural is not as resilient as urban, the pick up in pent-up demand is unlikely to make a large difference in FY22 GDP estimates, and hence it could only be a modest pick up.
On Monday, India reported a 7.3 per cent contraction in its economy.
The SBI Ecowrap noted that the real GDP for FY21 in the provisional estimates has been revised upwards to Rs 135.13 lakh crore from Rs 134.09 lakh crore as per the second advance estimates.
Thus, for FY21 the real GDP growth was registered at -7.3 per cent against the earlier SBI estimate of -8.0 per cent.
“The positive growth rate in Q4 FY21, which was projected to be negative in the second advance estimates, has helped in arresting the decline in GDP,” it said.