The expected improvement in GST collections will occur due to traction in economic activity during the festive month of November, said a SBI Ecowrap report on Thursday.
According to the report, November GST collections are expected to come in at a 10-month high of Rs 1.08 lakh crore as compared to Rs 1.05 lakh crore in October.
“The Nov’20 collections will be very close to Jan’20 collections (Rs 1.10 lakh crore).
“The continued improvement in GST is mainly due to traction in economic activities and services in festive month of November,” it said.
Besides, the report pointed out that 62.3 per cent of incremental credit extended by the SCBs on a YoY basis was provided by the PSBs and 41.2 per cent by the private sector banks, while the share of the foreign banks turned negative.
“A throwback into the past shows that in FY09, the share of PSBs in incremental credit was at 86.4 per cent, while that of Private Sector Banks was 9.8 per cent,” the report said.
“In the post-crisis period (FY09-FY14), the share of PSBs declined marginally to 79 per cent, whereas for PBs, it jumped to 20 per cent.
The report cited that post FY14-FY20, the share of PSBs is at 30 per cent, whereas that of PBs is at 55 per cent with constraints in lending, lack of adequate frontloaded capital and asset quality.
“Clearly, in the era of growth in pre FY08, it was an anomalous case of private sector growth with mostly public sector bank financing and currently in the era of no growth post pandemic, growth will perhaps come back again with majorly public sector bank financing,” the report said.
In addition, the report highlighted that yearly SBI Composite Index has now reached 19-month high of 53.9 in November compared to 53 in October’20, and 50.8 in November’19.
“The monthly index touched the all-time high of 62.1 (High Growth) in Nov’20, compared to 59.3 (High Growth) in Oct’20 and 49.96 (Low Growth) in Nov’19,” it said.
“Based on the SBI index, we believe IIP & IIP manufacturing may grow 2-3 per cent in Oct’20 and 3.5-4.5 per cent in Nov’20. The SBI Business Activity Index, meanwhile, has jumped to the highest since March 9 for the week ended November 23.”